With just four weeks remaining until the Pac-12 Tournament, Oregon State finds itself in a position it hasn't seen since the 2004-05 season. The Beavers could very well find themselves playing in a postseason event not named the CBI once March rolls around, and in order to gain a sense of where we stand compared to the rest of the nation, I'll be releasing my postseason projections periodically until the team gives me a reason to give up hope.
First up, the NCAA Tournament:
| (1) EAST New York (Fri/Sun) | (2) WEST Anaheim (Thu/Sat) |
||
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo (Thu/Sat) | San Diego (Fri/Sun) | ||
| 1 | Syracuse (ACC) | 1 | Arizona (Pac-12) |
| 16 | Robert Morris (NE)/Coastal Carolina (Big South) | 16 | Utah Valley (WAC) |
| 8 | New Mexico | 88 | George Washington |
| 9 | SMU | 9 | Harvard (Ivy) |
| San Diego (Fri/Sun) | Spokane (Thu/Sat) | ||
| 55 5 | Iowa | 5 5 | Kentucky |
| 12 | Baylor | 1212 | Colorado/Providence |
| 4 | Creighton (Big East) | 4 | Iowa State |
| 13 | Toledo (MAC) | 13 | Green Bay (Horizon) |
| Raleigh (Fri/Sun) | |||
| 6 | Virginia | 666 | Connecticut |
| 11 | Stanford | 11 | Kansas State |
| 3 | Michigan State | 3 | Michigan (Big Ten) |
| 14 | Stony Brook (America East) | 14 | Mercer (Atlantic Sun) |
| Spokane (Thu/Sat) | Buffalo (Thu/Sat) | ||
| 7 | Pittsburgh | 7 | Memphis |
| 10 | Southern Miss (C-USA) | 10 | Tennessee |
| 2 | Wichita State (MVC) | 2 | Villanova |
| 15 | UC Santa Barbara (Big West) | 15 | Weber State (Big Sky) |
| (4) MIDWEST Indianapolis (Fri/Sun) | (3) SOUTH Memphis (Thu/Sat) |
||
| St. Louis (Fri/Sun) | Orlando (Thu/Sat) | ||
| 1 | San Diego State (MWC) | 1 | Florida (SEC) |
| 16 | Canisius (MAAC)/Chattanooga (Southern) | 16 | Southern U (SWAC) |
| 8 | UCLA | 8 | California |
| 9 | Florida State | 9 | Massachusetts |
| San Antonio (Fri/Sun) | Orlando (Thu/Sat) | ||
| 5 | Oklahoma | 5 | Wisconsin |
| 12 | Missouri | 12 | St. Joseph's/Arizona State |
| 4 | Louisville | 4 | Texas |
| 13 | North Carolina Central (MEAC) | 13 | American U (Patriot) |
| San Antonio (Fri/Sun) | Raleigh (Fri/Sun) | ||
| 6 | Oklahoma State | 6 | Gonzaga (WCC) |
| 11 | Xavier | 11 | Minnesota |
| 3 | Saint Louis (Atlantic 10) | 3 | Duke |
| 14 | Georgia State (Sun Belt) | 14 | Delaware (CAA) |
| St. Louis (Fri/Sun) | Milwaukee (Thu/Sat) | ||
| 7 | VCU | 7 | Ohio State |
| 10 | North Carolina | 10 | LSU |
| 2 | Kansas (Big 12) | 2 | Cincinnati (AAC) |
| 15 | Stony Brook (Ohio Valley) | 15 | IPFW (Summit) |
| FIRST FOUR (Dayton) | |||
| Tuesday: To Buffalo | Tuesday: To Orlando | ||
| 16 | Robert Morris (Northeast) | 12 | St. Joseph's |
| 16 | Coastal Carolina (Big South) | 12 | Arizona State |
| Wednesday: To St. Louis | Wednesday: To Spokane |
||
| 16 | Canisius (MAAC) | 12 | Colorado |
| 16 | Chattanooga (Southern) | 12 | Providence |
| BIDS BY CONFERENCE | LAST FOUR BYES | ARRIVALS | DEPARTURES |
| Big 12: 7 | Xavier | N/A | N/A |
| Pac-12: 6 | Minnesota | ||
| ACC: 6 | Baylor | ||
| Big Ten: 6 | Missouri | ||
| AAC: 5 | LAST FOUR IN | ||
| A10: 5 |
St. Joseph's | ||
| SEC: 5 | Colorado | ||
| Big East: 4 | Providence | ||
| MW: 2 | Arizona State | ||
| 1-Bid Conferences: 22 | FIRST FOUR OUT | ||
| Oregon | |||
| Saint Mary's | |||
| Clemson | |||
| Richmond | |||
| NEXT FOUR OUT | |||
| Arkansas | |||
| Boise State | |||
| Louisiana Tech | |||
| BYU |
Bracket Notes:
- You'll notice teams like Stanford and Oregon on the bubble, both teams that the Beavers posted wins over in the month of January. Does that mean that we aren't far behind? Yes and no. Our record is almost bubble worthy, but at 13-9, so are plenty of others around the country. Combine that fact with our low RPI, and dancing is still a long ways off. A top five road win tomorrow afternoon at Arizona would move us up in a hurry, however.
- Baylor is being buried by a lot of bracketologists at the moment because of a bad two week stretch in January, but I've got them on the right side of the bubble. The Bears have posted wins away from home against Colorado, Kentucky, and Oklahoma State, and while conference play has been unkind to them, the Big 12 is the second toughest league in the country.
- The SEC is quickly losing a lot of respect, partly a product of its best teams eating each other in league play. I've got five teams in the NCAA's, but three on the ten line or lower. Could easily change within the week.
- In the Pac-12, Arizona is hanging onto its one seed, and will be on that top line until it suffers a second loss. UCLA and California's bad losses in the past week dropped them both to eight seeds, a place you don't want to be since a win means a date with a one seed in the next round. Stanford is safely in the field as an 11 seed, and I project both Colorado and Arizona State to the "First Four". Oregon is my first team out of the field after dropping seven of its last nine.
NIT PROJECTIONS
| 1 Oregon | 1 Saint Mary's | |
| 8 Vanderbilt | 8 Saint Bonaventure | |
| 4 Washington | 4 NC State | |
| 5 Wake Forest | 5 Northwestern | |
| 3 Georgetown | 3 Indiana | |
| 6 Purdue | 6 Oregon State | |
| 2 Arkansas | 2 Boise State | |
| 7 La Salle | 7 Nebraska | |
| 1 Richmond | 1 Clemson | |
| 8 Penn State | 8 Indiana State | |
| 4 Mississippi | 4 Marquette | |
| 5 St. John's | 5 Maryland | |
| 3 Dayton | 3 Clemson | |
| 6 UNLV | 6 Ohio | |
| 2 BYU | 2 Louisiana Tech | |
| 7 West Virginia | 7 Illinois | |
First Four Out
Butler
Notre Dame
UTEP
Missouri State
Next Four Out
Middle Tennessee
Wyoming
Seton Hall
Miami (Florida)
NIT Notes:
- The Beavers enter the field as a six seed, joining the likes of Purdue, UNLV, and Ohio on the six line. The next goal for Oregon State is to finish as a four or higher, which would mean at least one of the games would be played in Gill Coliseum.
- Oregon and Washington are the two other Pac-12 teams in the field, with the Ducks as a one and Huskies as a four. Joining the Ducks on the top line are Saint Mary's, Richmond, and Clemson.
CBI PROJECTIONS - Click here for part one, and here for part two.
--Connor Pelton
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