Oregon State kicks off the Pac-12 season with a trip to Salt Lake City to take on a Utah team that is having a fun start to the year. The Utes have been a perennial bottom-feeder since joining the Pac-12, finishing 10th or 11th in 9 of 12 seasons, including the last three. Not much else was expected going into this year, both the Pac-12 coaches and D1 Baseball predicted more of the same, picking Utah to finish 10th in 2024. Head coach Gary Henderson’s squad have shrugged off that history so far this year, running out to an 11-4 start. That has not eliminated questions about Utah’s ability to contend in the Pac-12 (their three best wins against UC San Diego and two against Washington State were all by 1 run), but all of their games have been on the road so far this year, and it is certainly better to be 11-4 than 4-11.
This weekend will tell us a lot about Utah and how much they have improved on pre-season expectations. Two big questions will be whether their lineup can continue to provide solid production against Pac-12 pitching and if the bullpen can continue to be a shutdown factor and keep them in those one-run games.
The weather should be just fine in Salt Lake City for this series, with highs in the low 50s and winds around 10 mph. Utah will carry a live stream for the Saturday and Sunday games, with the Beaver Radio Network carrying audio for all three.
- Friday - Mar 15th @ 5:00 PM PT
- Saturday - Mar 16th @ 1:00 PM PT
- Sunday - Mar 17th @ 11:00 AM PT
NOTE: The matchup overviews starting this week will include both NCAA RPI (Rating Percentage Index) and Boyd’s World ISR (Iterative Strength Rating). Both are mathematical attempts to rank all college baseball teams, and RPI in particular is heavily weighted when it comes to NCAA tournament selections and seeding. You can read more about RPI here, and ISR here. The caveat is that both are unstable metrics at the beginning of the year and will shift around through the first few weeks of conference play. But with a month of baseball under our belts, the ratings are not meaningless and give a good indication of how a team has performed so far.
Offense
The Beaver offense is the class of the Pac-12 even without the services of multiple impact players. Thier 10.08 runs per game is more than a run clear of second place Oregon and that includes 8 games in the cool damp confines of spring Goss Stadium. OSU should welcome back Trent Caraway to the lineup and Micah McDowell seems to be set to at least be a regular DH if not a complete return to his regular CF location. It would also not be surprising to see Tyce Peterson make a return to the lineup on Saturday. He has been absent since February 25th, partially due to the large collection of right-handed starters the Beavers have faced since then.
Utah has scored runs at a decent clip, their 6.55 runs per game is right around average for the Pac-12. Thier underlying numbers have not been as favorable, highlighted by a .763 OPS that is 9th in the Pac-12. They are free swingers that don't strike out or walk much and aren’t afraid to run on the basepaths. Senior CF Kai Roberts is the anchor of the lineup. He has been a regular starter since his freshman year and leads the Utes in home runs (4) and doubles (7) this year and is tied for the lead in stolen bases (6). Junior 1B Drake Digiorno (.293/.408/.512) and LF Karson Bodily (.313/.343/.563) have been solid middle of the order bats as well. The bottom of the lineup has struggled, which Beaver pitching will need to take advantage of.
Advantage: Oregon State
NOTE: Quality Hitters in the table are defined as players that are above the 75th percentile in plate appearances (currently 57) and OPS (currently 1.054). It is intended to capture hitters that are both regulars in the lineup and are producing at a level that would be an impact on any team. The total number is an indication of how deep a lineup is. For most teams this is 1-2 hitters, although some lineups have up to 6 quality hitters in the lineup.
Starting Pitching
It sounds like Aiden May will not return this weekend (although Mitch Canham held out next week as a possibility). The Beavers will keep the same rotation structure they have the last two weekends, keeping Jacob Kmatz and Eric Segura in their Saturday and Sunday roles. The change will be lefty Nelson Keljo stepping into the weekend starting role in place of Jaren Hunter, who has struggled so far this year.
Keljo made his first start of the year last Thursday after making three relief appearances earlier in the year. The sophomore has been more effective than Hunter this year and has been extended somewhat in all four of his outings, facing 8 or more hitters in each and throwing over 50 pitches in his last two appearances including the start.
After that the Beavers have the advantage on both Saturday and Sunday. That’s not to diminish Utah’s rotation, but the combination of results (ERA), underlying numbers (FIP, K-BB%) and competition favor the Beavs.
Advantage: Oregon State
NOTE: The stats here are for a player’s starts alone, so for example Nelson Keljo’s relief appearances are not included here. GS stands for Game Score, a measure of a pitcher's performance in a start that covers how deep they pitch, runs they give up, as well as hits, strikeouts, walks and more. You can read more about how it is calculated here. The GS +/- metric is how much above or below the team average start a player has performed.
Bullpen
Keljo making the start leaves Tyler Mejia as the only left-handed pitcher in the OSU bullpen. That is something to watch out for with Jackson and other Utah regulars such as SS Core Jackson hit from the left side. For the entire Beaver bullpen this weekend is an opportunity to clean up the free passes, which would turn an average bullpen into a strength.
As could be expected with some close-fought wins, the Utah bullpen has been a strength through the season so far. Closer Micah Ashman has been the biggest force for the Utes and has not allowed a run in his 6.2 IP while striking out 9 and allowing just 2 hits and a walk. Randon Hostert is a senior long man who has pitched 4 or more innings in 4 of his 5 outings this year. He has done a good job of limiting runs and has a 2.55 ERA, with most of that damage coming against Washington St in the Friday game. But like others in the Utah bullpen, the underlying strikeouts and walks indicate some regression is coming, his FIP of 4.99 is good but not as good as the ERA.
Advantage: Utah
NOTE: Arms is a count of the number of relievers a team has used this season. Quality arms are ones that have thrown more innings than 75% of relievers (5.6 currently) and have an FIP better than 75% of relievers (4.52 currently). Clean Outings are defined as ones where a reliever goes at least one inning and does not allow a run. Clean Outing % is the percentage of all outings by a bullpen that qualify as clean.
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