Getting Baseball Back to Goss: NDSU Preview

What We Learned Last Week

There is nothing to complain about with a 3-1 week when you outscore quality competition 34-10. That is especially true when you weather a historic performance by Arkansas lefty Hagen Smith, who struck out 17 of the 22 Beavers he faced. The Beavers were able to battle back and tie things up at 4 in a game that brought as big a playoff atmosphere as you get in early season college baseball. While OSU was not able to hold onto the lead, a one-run loss to the #3 team in the country doesn’t change any expectations.

The bigger concern was Aiden May leaving with forearm discomfort in the 5th inning. May and Coach Canham have indicated there is nothing serious and that May should be back up and running in a week or two, but forearm injuries to pitchers have a bad reputation, and losing a Friday night starter that up until that injury was going toe-to-toe with Arkansas would be a massive blow.

The Beavers had no problems in the other three games of the weekend, dispatching #21 Texas Tech, Michigan, and Oklahoma State by 6, 10, and 7 runs respectively. All phases of the game were clicking for the Beavers on the national stage, now it is a matter of keeping up that momentum as they return to Corvallis for the home opener.

• What is the bullpen pecking order? There was not much to help break out the bullpen rolls out of this weekend. Kyle Scott did not pitch, which made some sense since there was never a save situation. I would expect he will get in the game Thursday or Friday regardless of the score to get some work in. Nelson Keljo has pitched in the two close games the Beavers have had so far (Minnesota and Arkansas) and is likely the first lefty out of the pen. Other than that, 12 of the 13 relievers who pitched the first weekend saw action in the second, and one again no one needed to make a second appearance. There are two more weeks to narrow things down before conference play starts, but for now it's good to know there is depth in the Beaver bullpen.
• Who gets the Sunday start? Eric Segura has a hold on the Sunday spot in the Beaver rotation. He took on a talented Oklahoma State team and held them to 1 run over 5 innings. Segura’s emergence has been a welcome development for the Beavers, giving them a talented arm over the weekend and allowing Jared Hunter to work back from injury as a known quantity fourth starter.
• How much does home run power translate against power conference arms? Oregon State racked up another 5 home runs over the four games at Globe Life Field, along with 12 doubles. No one expected a repeat of the Suprise performance in an MLB field against top 25 teams, but there were still balls put into the upper decks. Travis Bazzana’s home run against Oklahoma State was particularly majestic, inspiring the stadium PA announcer to cue the music while the ball was still in the air.

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What We Are Watching

All four games this week are part of the weekend series against North Dakota State. Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday will be streamed by Oregon State while Friday night's game can be found on Pac-12 Insider.

• Thursday - Feb 29th @ 4:05 PM PT
• Friday - Mar 1st @ 4:05 PM PT
• Saturday - Mar 2nd @ 1:05 PM PT
• Sunday - Mar 3rd @ 12:35 PM PT

NDSU is a good team in a bad conference. The Summit Conference is generally a one-bid league when it comes to tournament play, and that spot has been taken by Oral Roberts (notable for knocking off the Ducks in a Eugene Super Regional last season) in the past two years. Full credit to the Bison, who have scheduled hard non-conference games in both 2023 and 2024 as head coach Tyler Oakes has taken on the program. They have road series against both Oregon State and LSU over the next two weeks before they dive into conference play.

• Rotation Adjustments Without May. The Beavers tentative rotation for the series is Ian Lawson on Thursday, followed by Hunter, Jacob Kmatz, and Segura. Keeping Kmatz and Segura in their Saturday and Sunday roles is a good sign that May’s injury is indeed considered short term. Lawson will be making his first start in 2023 (he made one start late last year after being one of the Beavers most reliable bullpen arms). The 6’7” righthander has thrown 33 and 46 pitches in his two appearances so far this year, so it's unlikely he goes too much higher than that, giving a deep bullpen plenty of work to start the weekend.
• Still watching the bullpen. Speaking of that bullpen, this is the first of two weekends to get looks before Pac-12 play starts. It will be difficult to see who Canham pitching coach Rich Dorman trust the most in high leverage situations if we don't get any in this series (as is hoped), and they are understandably managing pitcher’s volume early in the year. Still, any chance to learn more about the relief depth is welcome.
• Tracking Beaver Bombs. The OSU lineup’s home run pace slowed in week two and they are now on pace to hit 130 home runs this regular season, a mere 41 more than last season’s record setting number. The ball won’t travel as far in a cold and damp Goss Stadium over the next two weeks, but the Beavers likely have enough power to keep close to their current pace before Pac-12 play begins.

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Opponent Preview

This may be Oakes’ 3rd year in the seat at North Dakota State but he is familiar with the organization and culture, having been the Bisons pitching coach for the 8 years prior. In ties to coaches the Beavers have previously seen this year, he played for John Anderson at Minnesota back in the early 2000s and was the NDSU assistant coach under current New Mexico coach Tod Brown while he was running the show for the Bison. He has led them to top-2 finishes in the regular season the last two years, but failed to win the conference tournament to get the regional bid that comes with it.

The Bison were swept by projected regional team UC Irvine to start the year by a combined score of 31-8. They lost a mid-week game to Cal Poly by one run, then won a series at Pacific, coming back from a one-run loss in the Friday game. NDSU an extreme case of the early spring issues OSU has to deal with, they play their first 27 games of the year on the road.

Players to Watch

SP Parker Puetz is low 90s righthander who led the Summit League in ERA 2.51 as a freshman last year. He was presumed to be the Friday night guy for NDSU going into the year but has not made an appearance since struggling on opening day against UC Irvine. Losing a pitcher with that track record will make an already tall hill that much higher for the North Dakota State pitching staff to climb.

Originally recruited as a catcher, closer Joey Danielson has some impressive stuff and touches 96 with his fastball. He has struggled to convert that into results with an 8.58 ERA in 28.1 innings last year, and a 9.00 ERA in 5 IP to start off 2024.

LF Colten Becker is a junior getting his first playing time in college. Is off on a tear to start the year and is the hottest Bison at the plate, slashing .357/.419/.571 in 31 plate appearances.

CF Cadyn Schwabe is the leadoff guy with good on base skills and a lot of speed. He walked nearly as much as he struck out last year (27 walks to 30 strikeouts) and was second in the Summit Conference with 27 stolen bases last year. He is off to a slow start to 2024, 5 hits and 8 strikeouts in 33 plate appearances.