Beaver Baseball: Last Hurrah of the Pac-12

The regular season title passed over Brady Kasper’s head in the desert night on Sunday, but the Beavers have a chance to take home a title and potentially a top 8 national seed in the NCAA Tournament that would keep them in Corvallis for the first two rounds. That opportunity starts for OSU at 10:00 AM PT on Wednesday as they start pool play in the third and final iteration of the Pac-12 Baseball Tournament.

The games are kicking off as we speak this Tuesday, starting with Stanford and Arizona State at 10:00 AM PT at Scottsdale Stadium. Temperatures will be in the high 80s into the 90s for the early games (OSU’s timing for pool play), the mid-90s for the middle games, and down into the 70s for the night games. The Pac-12 Network will have TV coverage and the full schedule is at the bottom of the preview.

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Tournament Rules

Each pool plays one game each against fellow members of that pool. The winner advances to a final four team single elimination bracket, with the final spot taken by the highest remaining seed that finished second in their bracket. Ties are broken by original seeding, so the higher seed advances in the case of any ties. For more details, you can find the Pac-12 writeup on the rules here.

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Pool B

Pick: Oregon State

Slip ups against USC and California kept Oregon State from winning the regular season title and securing the 1 seed in the tournament, but no one else in the conference has the combination of hitting and pitching that the Beavers bring to the table. OSU’s run differential of 87 is more than double that of Arizona State (next best with 43).

Oregon State also brings substantially more pitching depth than either the Sun Devils or the Cardinal. Eleven Beaver pitchers have ERA’s under 5, including weekday starter Jaren Hunter who will likely get the ball against ASU on Wednesday. Only 4 Arizona State and 2 Stanford pitchers can say the same, and the condensed number of games in a tournament tend to force teams to test the depths of their pitching staff early and often.

Arizona State has caught fire after being swept by Oregon State and losing a series at home to Utah at the beginning of April. The Sun Devils have gone 16-4 since then and have scored double-digit runs in each of their last six games. You can question the strength of the competition in that run, but not the emphatic way that Arizona State has dispatched them along the way.

The Cardinal are on the complete opposite trajectory of Arizona State. They have lost their last 10 games, all to Pac-12 opponents and only one of those games has been within 2 runs. It’s a sad way for a modern Pac-12 powerhouse to end their run, but it seems like the players may be ready to head to the draft or summer ball at this point.

The Beavers can absolutely get tripped up in this pool. Arizona State has the bats to match OSU in one of those desert-style run scoring derbys the Beavers got stuck in last year if the bullpen has trouble putting out fires as they have at times this year. Oregon State will need to take advantage of ASU’s propensity to issue free passes and play sound defense (which has been better the last few weeks).

Hitter of the Pool: Travis Bazzana, Oregon State (.393/.549/.869, 12 HR, 8 SB)

It could be no one else. Bazzana has at the upper tier of college baseball hitters from the beginning of the year until now, and his bat is fully awake after a mini slump towards the end of the Pac-12 season. Kien Vu of Arizona State is worth a mention here. He has the highest batting average in Pac-12 play at .418, and his 10 home runs are tied for fourth.

Pitcher of the Pool: Aiden May, Oregon State (9 GS, 49.1 IP, 2.37 ERA, 23.1 K-BB%)

The Arizona transfer missed a few starts to start conference play, but has been a true Friday night ace since he has made his way back on the mound. May’s 8 inning, 14 strikeout performance against Oregon was the highlight. May did struggle in his start against Arizona State this year, allowing 5 runs in 4.1 innings, he may get a shot at redemption depending on how Mitch Canham and crew look to set up the rotation.

Pool C

Pick: USC

None of the teams in this pool have much pitching depth, so Oregon’s relative weakness on offense may come back to bite them in this matchup. Utah has been in a free fall these last few weeks, including at the hands of USC this past weekend. The Trojans have the talent to have been picked as a tournament team pre-season, and while they likely need to win the tournament to make it, it should be enough to get them the 2 wins they need to advance here.

Hitter of the Pool: Mason Neville, Oregon (.286/.363/.786, 10 HR, 4 SB)

A transfer from Arkansas, the lefty has hit 10 of his 16 home runs in conference play. He strikes out a lot, his 32.5% strikeout rate is 3rd worst in conference play, but when he makes contact the ball travels a long way.

Pitcher of the Pool: Bryson Van Sickle, Utah (10 GS, 66.1 IP, 2.44 ERA, 13.9 K-BB%)

Van Sickle is 2nd only to May among qualified pitchers in conference ERA. He has thrown two complete games this year, including a shutout against a formidable Arizona State lineup. Oregon roughed him up when they faced him in early May, tagging him for 5 runs in 6 innings.

Pool A

Pick: Arizona

Cal has the offense and pitching depth to give Arizona a run for their money, but the tiebreaker gives too much of an edge to the Wildcats to ignore. The one thing to watch is whether Arizona gets behind the 8-ball in the early part of pool play as they navigate mid-week starter and bullpen games. So much of their prowess on the mound is captured in thier weekend rotation, which will likely be held back until closer to the weekend.

Hitter of the Pool: Avia Arquette, Washington (.321/.382/.611, 10 HR, 4 SB)

Arquette went 7-for-14 with 2 home runs in the Huskies series against Arizona and paces the Washington offense. The Huskie leadoff man has cut his strikeout rate nearly in half from his part time duty when he hit 5 home runs in 45 at bats.

Pitcher of the Pool: Clark Candiotti, Arizona (10 GS, 63 IP, 2.71 ERA, 19.9 K-BB%)

Candiotti likely won’t start until the knockout rounds considering he last pitched on Saturday against Oregon State, but he highlights a formidable trio of Wildcat starting pitchers who will be a force to be reckoned with assuming Arizona makes it through pool play.

Wildcard Pick: Oregon

It's unlikely Oregon will lose both games, which means they advance via the wildcard if Arizona and Oregon State both win their respective pools.

Champion Pick: Oregon State

No other team in the Pac-12 can match OSU’s combination of pitching depth and offensive firepower. The overall quality of that pitching depth can be questionable at times, but there are enough solid arms to keep a short leash on relievers and still have pitchers who can get outs later in the tournament. Combine that with an offense that has recovered their early season form and the incentive of a top 8 national seed and the Beavs will be a tough out in Scottsdale.

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Schedule

Round Robin

Tuesday May 21st

10:00 AM PT - Stanford vs Arizona State

2:30 PM PT - Utah vs USC

7:00 PM PT - Washington vs California

Wednesday May 22nd

10:00 AM PT - Oregon State vs Stanford

2:30 PM PT - Oregon vs Utah

7:00 PM PT - Arizona vs Washington

Thursday May 23rd

10:00 AM PT - Arizona State vs Oregon State

2:30 PM PT - USC vs Oregon

7:00 PM PT - California vs Arizona

Elimination

Semifinals - Friday May 24th

2:30 PM PT - Game 1

7:00 PM PT - Game 2

Finals - Saturday May 25th

7:00 PM PT - Championship