Beaver Baseball: Limping out of Berkeley

Series Recap

Friday - It was tough going from the get-go for Aiden May, who gave up a leadoff home run to start the game. Things didn’t get much better from there as the junior was hit around in the first and third innings while Cal stretched out a 6-2 lead. Credit to May, he hung in and got through 5 innings to keep the Beavers from diving too far into the bullpen in the first game of the series. The Oregon State lineup came through with some clutch two-out hitting in the 5th, using home runs by Mason Guerra and Wilson Weber to tie the game at 6.

Seeing-eye singles aided by wild pitches and walks helped the Golden Bears pull ahead 8-6 going into the 9th inning, when Elijah Hainline hit a dramatic two out home run to tie the game. The good vibes from that shot lasted less than 15 minutes, as Bridger Holmes allowed his second walk off home run in as many games on a two-out blast by Seth Gwynn.

Saturday - For most of Saturday’s game it looked like the Beavers had washed the bad taste of the previous two games out of their mouths. Jacob Kmatz threw 5.1 innings of solid baseball, allowing 3 runs while striking out 5 and walking 1. A Travis Bazzana home run erased the early Cal lead and OSU led the game 5-2 heading into the bottom of the 6th. It was then that the ghosts of recent games past started to creep in, with the OSU defense giving Cal extra opportunities via throwing errors and those being compounded by walks from the pitching staff. Add in a couple solo home runs and the Beavers headed to the 9th inning with a 7-5 lead. Holmes had been brought in the game in the 8th and successfully snuffed out a Cal rally but could not replicate that in the 9th. The inning went single, walk, error, wild pitch, walk, hit-by-pitch, strikeout, walk off walk to lock in a series loss for the Beavs.

Sunday - By the series finale the story had become frustratingly repetitive. Cal gets out to an early small lead (2-1 in the 4th in this instance), the Beavers offense fights back to claim the lead (this time courtesy of a Dallas Macias two run home run in the 6th) that OSU cannot hold on to (on Sunday it was Laif Plamer giving up two walks and two hits as part of a 2-run rally in the 7th). The Beavs went quietly in the 8th and 9th innings and were swept for the first time in Pac-12 play since Stanford last year.

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What We Learned

If the tournament started this weekend, it would be hard to see this version of Oregon State getting out of regionals. The issues of free passes and shoddy defense have continued to plague the Beavs. The offense is still among the best in the country, but as the last 4 games have shown (and really last 6 if you reach back to the series finale against Stanford) that can’t be counted on to win every game.

It seems like there are solutions to address the defensive side of the ball. Ideally Trent Caraway’s return from an injured finger can allow Guerra to slide back to 1st base and put Jacob Kreig into a DH rotation. Guerra leads the team with 8 errors, and Kreig’s 5 errors are third on the team, which is remarkable for a 1st baseman. Right now, the coaching staff is using that DH role to work McDowell and Kasper back into the mix, and once those two are back in the outfield you need to ensure that both Kreig and Dallas Macias have opportunities, but that's a better problem than consistently blowing leads with defensive errors.

One option in the interim would be to give Hainline more time at 3rd base and Jabin Trosky some more opportunities at short. The sophomore has a humble .296/.345/.296 slash line in 28 at bats in conference play, but the Beavs can afford to sacrifice some offense if it means saving a run or two on the other end. Trosky did get the start on Sunday at 3rd base (with Hainline holding down short), so some version of this may be where the coaching staff is headed.

The bullpen is harder to see a solution to. Clearly the staff isn't heading out there looking to hit and walk batters, and we have gone far enough into the season that it’s unrealistic to believe those issues (which exist across almost everyone in the bullpen) are going to magically go away. I don’t envy the jobs of Mitch Canham and Rich Dorman, who are stuck trying to push buttons without any consistent performance to rely on. Holmes was the only one to consistently get outs, but regression has come quick and hard this last week, and it's not like he was limiting baserunners even when throwing zeros on the board.

The best hope here is that of the 10 or so guys that are getting appearances, that 2 or 3 can figure things out in the second half of the year and be reliable options against quality teams in a regional. To some extent that's reasonable. Joey Mundt has been reliable outside of a 6 pitch outing against Stanford, Kyle Scott is still ramping up but has been solid in his 3 appearances since returning, Nelson Keljo has a FIP that is more than a full run better than his ERA (4.32 to 5.64), and Kellan Oakes is allowing 1.14 walks and hits per inning, and it's reasonable to see his 11% walk rate come down as he throws more innings. But hoping that doing the same thing over again and expecting different results is not a phrase normally used in earnest.

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Batting Line of the Week

Travis Bazzana Batting Line - 14 PA, .250/.357/.500, 1 HR, 4 RBI

It was as pedestrian a weekend that Bazzana has had all year, which is saying something. Cal did a better job getting outs than Stanford’s plan last week of just walking the Australian. All that said, the Beaver second basemen still put up a home run and 4 RBI in Saturday’s game and had a hit in every game of the series.

Non-Bazzana Batting Line: Mason Guerra - 14 PA, .200/.357/.800, 2 HR, 4 RBI

We are guilty of not shining a light on the combination of Guerra and Gavin Turley enough in this section. Both are among the Pac-12 leaders in OPS and very much in the mix for all-Pac-12 post-season honors. A power surge from Guerra like he put on this weekend may put him over the top.

Pitching Line of the Week

Eric Segura - 1 GS, 6 IP, 2 R, 7 H, 8 K, 2 BB

Segura has now had 6 or more strikeouts in 5 of his 10 starts, and 3 of his last 4. There have been growing pains for sure, but the freshman’s emergence and Kmatz’ improvements have been a bright spot for the Beavs.

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Pac-12 Power Rankings

Arizona took advantage of both Oregon teams having down weeks to surge into a 2-game lead in the Pac-12 standings. That combined with OSU going winless on the weekend means a change at the top of the power rankings for the first time this season. The Beavs very well may have fallen to 3rd if Oregon had won a close fought series against Stanford. Either way, this weekend’s rivalry series in Corvallis is the biggest set of games in the Pac-12 race so far and the biggest of the season for OSU.

1. (Up 2) Arizona. Swept Washington St. on the road 3-0 (22-14)
2. (Down 1) Oregon St. Swept by California on the road 0-3 (18-22)
3. (Down 1) Oregon. Lost series @ Stanford 1-2 (31-34)
4. (Up 1) California. Swept Oregon St. at home 3-0 (22-18)
5. (Down 1) Utah. Won series vs. Washington 2-1 (30-22)
6. (Up 2) Arizona St. Swept UCLA on the road 3-0 (26-6)
7. (Down 1) USC. Lost series vs. Sacramento St. 1-2 (19-22)
8. (Up 2) Stanford. Won series vs Oregon 2-1 (34-31)
9. (Down 2) Washington St. Swept by Arizona on the road 0-3 (14-22)
10. (Down 1) Washington. Lost series @ Utah 1-2 (22-30)
11. (NC) UCLA. Swept by Arizona St. at home 0-3 (6-26)