The Beavers kick off the 2024 baseball season Friday by making their traditional pilgrimage to Suprise, AZ for the Sanderson Ford College Baseball Classic. OSU faces a set of familiar teams from recent years, but none that have the season expectations that the Beavers do (that challenge comes next week). Below is a summary of the Beavers and the teams they will be playing this weekend, but for the short version of the preview, here are three things to watch as we see Oregon State take the diamond for the first time this year:
- How far along are Jacob Kmatz and Jaren Hunter in building back up from injury? Both pitchers started throwing this spring as they recover from injuries picked up during last spring. Kmatz threw 75 pitches in his first start in Suprise last year and Hunter threw 69. If they get close to those numbers that would be a good indication, they are close to full strength.
- Who gets the starts at DH? Most of the lineup spots seem written in pen based on the amount of returning talent and starts. DH is the spot that seems like it will have the most churn early in the year to see if anyone can step up and grab it. Expect Dallas Macias to see some time, but there is a long list of others who should get their chance.
- Which relievers get multiple appearances? Four pitchers saw the mound twice in Suprise last spring and all four were leaned on throughout the year, including freshman AJ Hutcheson and Nelson Keljo. It's not the only sign a pitcher is trusted (closer Ryan Brown only saw one appearance last year), but if freshman Laif Palmer and Eric Segura see plenty of action it may be an indication of high leverage innings to come.
Team Summaries
We dove much further into the Beavers in our two preview articles (Part 1 and Part 2) so we will use this section to give a quick overview of the stats we are looking at. With the churn in college baseball, it is tough to generate the kind of projections you see in big league baseball, so the aim here is to describe a team as it has performed under the tenure of the current coaching staff. For the Beavers, regionals continue to be the minimum expectation and Canham has delivered that in 3 of 4 years at the helm. It was a fringe top 25 performance in 2023, but the returning firepower has the Beavers towards the top of College World Series contenders in 2024.
The first row of the hitting and pitching tables include headline stats to describe the profile of the team under the head coach's tenure. Below that is a comparison to the rest of the conference that team plays in. 100 is average for the conference and each number above or below is a percentage difference.
For example, Oregon State team’s under Canham have walked 24% more often than the average Pac-12 team in the 4 years Canham has been at the helm. This doesn't tell the whole story for 2024. For example, we have talked before about how this year’s Beaver offense has the potential to be one of the best ever but does give you a sense of what coaches are looking for in recruiting and development. The Beavers unsurprisingly look for players with good plate discipline, which generates more walks and an above average on base percentage, but in working deep into counts does open them up for more strikeouts.
Thanks to guys like Cooper Hjerpe, Kevin Abel, and Jake Pfennigs, the Beavers have enjoyed some incredibly talented pitching staffs under Canham, although 2023 was by far the toughest year for the Oregon State staff. The road back to the days of 2021 were made all the more difficult this past week as it was announced that sophomore Aiden Jimenez will miss the year due to injury. Jimenez was a rotation candidate and one of the most talented Beaver arms, losing him will test the staff’s depth before a game is even played.
Lobos coach Tod Brown made his name as the coach of North Dakota State from 2008-2021, bringing them to regionals twice (including a trip to Corvallis in 2014). He is still working to build up New Mexico, a regular participant in the Suprise tournament and a team that took down Oregon State in the season opener last year 7-2. Things did not stay on that trajectory for New Mexico, as they struggled to a 5th place finish in the Mountain West. The team is turning over a ton on both sides of the ball in 2024, whether that means improvement or building anew remains to be seen.
New Mexico was driven by their offense last year but shed most of the leaders of that group heading into 2024 including star outfielder Lenny Ashby who transferred to Kansas for his senior year.
Player to Watch - 1B Reed Spenrath: The big first basemen led the team with 19 home runs in 2023 and put up an impressive .321/.440/.721 line in his junior campaign. He will anchor the Lobos lineup and provide a test for OSU pitchers. He is acceptable to the strikeout, whiffing on over 30% of his plate appearances.
Pitching was an issue for New Mexio last year, with only one pitcher having an ERA under 4. They lose all three of their weekend starters in 2024 and will hope for development from the staff. They will get the help of a couple Junior College transfers in Andrew Neil and David Lopez to fill in the weekend rotation.
Player to Watch - Arthur Steinkamp: A left-handed sidearmer who primarily pitches out of the bullpen, Steinkamp led the team with a 2.81 ERA in 25.2 innings and will find his way into face the Beaver lefties.
2024 will be the final season of John Anderson’s incredible 43-year career as the head coach of the Golden Gophers. A kindred spirit to Oregon State as a northern baseball school, Minnesota has been unable to regain form since they came to Corvallis for a Super Regional back in 2018. The Golden Gophers have suffered four consecutive losing seasons after only two in the prior 38 years with Anderson at the helm. There is experience coming back with this Minnesota team, whether that will be enough to send Anderson off in style will be the question.
In the interest of relevant comparisons, stats go back to 2015 for the Gophers to keep the scoring environment consistent and avoid the ‘gorilla ball’ years of the 1990s. Last year’s iteration of the Minnesota lineup had decent plate discipline but struggled to hit the ball with authority. The Gophers will be looking to drive the ball more in 2024.
Player to Watch - 2B Brady Counsell: The son of MLB veteran and Chicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell, Brady is coming into his 3rd year with Minnesota. He improved both his batting eye and power in his sophomore year and will give the Gophers continuity in the middle infield.
Player to Watch - Connor Wietegrefe: A JUCO transfer last year, Wietegrefe was a force out of the bullpen last year, striking out 58 in 44.2 innings on the way to a 3.83 ERA. He will likely move into the rotation this year as a weekend starter.
Beard spent his college days in Corvallis as a pitcher for the Beavers before making his way into coaching and has been at CSU Bakersfield since 2017. His first year was the only one in which the Roadrunners finished with a winning record, and they will look to improve on an injury plagued season last year.
Player to Watch - C Matthew Kurata: The junior is coming off a second-team All-Big West selection in 2023 after putting together a .369/.427/.439 line in 157 at-bats last year. There isn't much power there, but he has as good a contact bat as the Beavers will see as he starts on a campaign to set the CSU Bakersfield record for career batting average.
Player to Watch - Gary Grosjean: It’s hard to project which starter the Roadrunners will bring out for their game against Oregon State, but there is a chance it is the grad transfer Grosjean. The experienced righty has mid-90s velocity and will be a good test for the Beaver lineup.
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