NCAA Baseball Bracketology (Updated After Friday Games)

Below are my projections for the 64 team NCAA Baseball field, which will be released on May 27. Please comment and question below.

Last Five In: Ohio State, South Florida, Pittsburgh, UC Irvine, Auburn

First Five Out: Kentucky, Texas A&M, Creighton, North Florida, Houston

* Denotes an Automatic Bid

Multi-Bid Conferences:

SEC - 9

ACC - 8

Pac-12 -4

Big East - 4

Sun Belt - 4

Big 12 - 3

WCC - 3

Big West - 3

Big Ten - 3

Big South - 2

Colonial - 2

Toughest Regional - Bloomington

Easiest Regional - Raleigh

• Strictly on a résumé basis, the ACC deserves the four national seeds I gave them. Whether the selection committee will grant them the quartet, however, is up in the air. Right now I have NC State beating out Louisville and a pair of Pac-12 clubs for the final spot. The Cardinals do have a slightly better record than that of the Wolfpack, but NCSU's RPI and SOS ranks, at ninth and 12th respectively, carry enough weight over the Ville's 13th and 85th ranking to give them the nod. The Pack have at least three games left (vs Clemson, vs Miami Florida, vs North Carolina) before Selection Monday, and I think they need to win two of them to hold steady at number eight. If they do stumble in Durham, then Louisville would be the next best option, assuming the Cards don't drop more than one game in Clearwater.
• At the very top of the bracket are Vanderbilt and LSU, and I think a SEC Tournament championship win for the Tigers would make them the top overall seed on Monday. The Bayou Bengals are playing some of the best baseball in the nation right now, winning nine of their last 11.
• The NCAA's decision to do away with the S-Curve and focus more on putting teams in their respective regions hurts Cal State Fullerton the most, as the third best team in the nation ends up with one of the top two seeds and a dangerous three all coming to Fullerton. Also hit hard is South Carolina, who I project to meet with Miami (Florida) and Oklahoma.
• Putting North Carolina as the sixth overall seed seems a bit low, but what are you going to do when so many teams in front of them look so good? I think an ACC Tournament championship could bump them up a slot and bump Virginia down behind the Heels and Beavers, but we'll see how the RPI numbers shake out on Sunday.
• The biggest surprise in my field is the inclusion of Virginia Tech as a regional host. But I'm taking the Hokies over Kansas State, who is the top two seed in my opinion. The Wildcats do have a slightly better record, but Va Tech outranks them by eight spots in the RPI and 37 in SOS. Virginia Tech is also 13-2 in their last 15, one of the categories the committee will look closely at, and boasts three victories over Virginia.
• Work Left: Texas A&M has been oh-so-close to playing its way into the field of 64 these past few weeks, and if they can find their way to the semifinals, I think the Aggies are included.
• Work Left: North Florida is in a similar situation to the Aggies, and will have to make either the semifinals or championship game of the Atlantic Sun tourney to draw any at-large consideration from the selection committee. Poor performances from Auburn and UC Irvine in the final week of the season wouldn't hurt either.