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Beavers / Frogs Talk

Rumors and newspaper columns have been flying for a couple of weeks about ESPN's idea to have Oregon St. ditch next season's home opener against Eastern Washington in order to have the Beavers play a Sept. 4 season opener spectacular in Cowboys Stadium, against the TCU Horned Frogs.

Athletic Director Bob DeCarolis on Monday made the idea seem real, saying "We're still negotiating with ESPN, but I would hope in the next two weeks we'll be able to get this thing accomplished. It's looking good, but there are still some things that need to come together."

The thing that needs to come together is mostly finding someone for Eastern Washington to play.

The reasons for the move are simple, dollars and promises.

Star-divide

The payout is projected to be at least $300,000, with the potential to reach nearly $1 million, which just happens to be the amount DeCarolis projects the school's athletic budget to be deficient in the 2009-10 academic year. Of course, the fact that it could cost some $ to get the Eagles to go away, and the loss of a home game will cost the revenue of an crowd of over 40,000, plus the price of a road trip, will have to be subtracted from that payout.

It's also a way for Oregon St. to get the Rodgers brothers James and Jacquizz an opportunity to play a game in their home state. The Rodgers of course come from Houston suburb Richmond, Texas, about a four hour drive from the Dallas area.

Coach Mike Riley has bought off on the move, saying "We've wanted to take the Rodgers brothers back to Texas for a game before James graduates, and this is our last chance to do that. Plus, I've always liked the big games, and it's a lifetime experience to play in that stadium. I said go for it."

The last chance, unless Oregon St. reaches the Alamo Bowl next season.

The downside is probably the end of any hope of a BCS at-large bid before classes ever start, and yet another slow start to a season, record wise, and the chance of diminished selection for television, and reduced or non-existent rankings, during October, until the regularly scheduled Riley late season surge comes about. That reduced television revenue has to be subtracted from the ESPN check as well.

DeCarolis does consider it a gamble, but feels "If you're fortunate enough to pull off a win, you're in the national conversation. It also helps the players focus in getting ready for the season through the summer."

Considering this a gamble is an optimistic view at best, though.

For those questioning the probability of this gloomy scenario, keep in mind it will mean two road games to BCS bowl teams that return almost their entire roster in the first month.

Undefeated and third ranked TCU is on track to return 18 starters, and any notion that playing the Horned Frogs, who are from Ft. Worth, in Arlington, is a neutral site game is foolish. It's the same as playing the Washington Huskies at Quest Stadium and calling that a neutral site.

And at the end of the month, there is the trip to Boise. The sixth ranked and undefeated Broncos also return almost their entire starting lineup as well, and are 75-2 on their blue turf.

Even though the Beavers return 19 starters, that's a start that will mean the toughest schedule in college football, not just next season, but maybe for several years, as all the national/rational powers try to limit their non-conference schedule to just one game they have a good chance of losing.

The prospect of that start has to make projected new starting quarterback Ryan Katz more than a little nervous.

And while a 1-2 start would limit the BCS options to winning the Pac-10 in order to go to the Rose Bowl, that will be an accomplishment too. With the return of Jake Locker to Washington, it means all nine of the other Pac-10 teams are likely to have a returning quarterback with Pac-10 starting experience.

Makes one wonder how much DeCarolis knows that he isn't saying.

We do know De Carolis, who has repeatedly been identified as a prime candidate for the vacant Michigan athletic director position, knows more about that situation than we do. De Carolis, whose contract at Oregon St. runs through 2011, previously spent 19 years in the Wolverines' athletic department before coming west to OSU in 1998. And his oldest daughter is a junior at Michigan.

But when asked if he had even been contacted by Michigan officials, De Carolis said, "I'm not in a position to talk about that. Let them go through the process, and we'll see what happens."

What we don't know is whether this development is a tip that there is more than yet meets the eye regarding the future status of quarterback Lyle Moevao, who missed all but one play this season, due first to slow recovery from shoulder surgery, and then an ankle injury in practice.

We do know that OSU officials haven't yet filed the formal application to the NCAA Student-Athlete Reinstatement Committee for a sixth season of eligibility for Moevao, who has an 11-4 record as a starter.

The process includes submitting both a letter from the student athlete, and one from the school on his behalf, as well as copies of his transcripts and academic standings to the NCAA. Alex Parker, OSU's associate athletic director for compliance, says the school is waiting for Moevao to complete some paperwork if he decides to go through with the appeal.

Parker said "A decision from the NCAA is usually reached three to four weeks after submission. Most extra years are granted when two different injuries are suffered to cause two seasons lost beyond the control of the student-athlete."

But in Moevao's case, he redshirted his first year at Oregon St. after a season at El Camino Junior College in Torrance, Calif., but has only lost one season due to injury.

With the experienced Moevao behind center, the bold scheduling move, as well as the Beavers' Pac-10 prospects in a year where the conference of quarterbacks will again be loaded with bona fide gunslingers, will look much different.

The prospect of next season's possible schedule with a quarterback, Katz, who hasn't started a game by then in nearly three years, and that a high school game, or perhaps Peter Lalich, who at least has DI starting experience for Virginia, but no game action in nearly two years, harkens back to the dark days.

Not just the more recent days when Oregon St. took on games that produced numerous early season nonconference losses, many of them by lopsided scores, in recent seasons, but also way back in history.

The dark ages known as the nearly thirty years between the original giant killers and the coming of the "Age of Riley" were a direct product of this type of scheduling. Oregon State once would only play only three home games, and one in Portland, loading up with high profile road games. Pull off the upsets, and you are the giant killers.

However, reality was a lot of beat downs, resulting in depressed home attendance (Who are these guys anyway, we haven't seen them around in a month?), and collapsed recruiting (Would a good recruit prefer to win, or get beat in front of a hostile crowd?). And a downward spiral that led to very real talk of dropping down to the Big Sky conference. Where there would be annual opportunities to play Eastern Washington.

When suicide scheduling is something others come to you to do, instead of you being willing to do it, is when your program has truly arrived. Seven home games should be the goal, not a schedule that makes exceeding seven wins a major achievement.

Unless Riley and DeCarolis know something the rest of us don't, it looks like a step back in time, more than a step up in national prominence.

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Comments

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Well...

There’s a difference between us now and us twenty years ago, or us now and a school like FIU who travels to get waxed for cash. TCU has to be the favorites in this game, especially on a friendly field—but it should be interesting.

One thing to keep in mind. TCU stomped BYU 38-7 in Utah this past season, so the upcoming Vegas Bowl will be interesting for an additional reason—to see how the Beavs fare against a common opponent. Like OSU, TCU isn’t losing many players to graduation, but like us, there is at least one loss that hurts bad. For us, it’s Canfield; for them its defensive end Jerry Hughes, both of who will likely be playing on Sundays next year.

That said—I’m not sure this hurts OSU’s bowl aspirations too much, unless you think we are on the cusp of not being bowl-eligible next year, and subbing EWU for TCU puts the Beavs below .500. Reaching the BCS (other than the Rose) is probably a stretch. These aren’t conference games so they only affect Rose Bowl standings if all else is equal (which it could be). OTOH, if Riley and company think they got a winner, a marquee win over a top ten program on the road (even just one of them) would be a tremendous boost.

What do you think DeCarolis might know that we don’t? That OSU’s athletic department needs cash and fast, and this is a good way to do it? Or that the Beavs do have special potential?

Should be an interesting year next year.

I am Spartacus and I approved this message

by EngineerScotty on Dec 15, 2009 1:53 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I hope to hell I eat my words next year, but
OTOH, if Riley and company think they got a winner, a marquee win over a top ten program on the road (even just one of them) would be a tremendous boost.

I agree with this but doesn’t this remind you a bit of the year we went to LSU and Boise State (2004)? Should’ve beat LSU and made a nice national showing against them anyway, but then got blasted by Boise State. I truly believe that this OSU football program is at a different (higher level) place, BUT damn I have too many bad memories of non-conference embarrassments to be really that excited about it all. Here’s to hoping that I’m an idiot and just being paranoid and Riley and Co. prove me way off base.

-RVM

by rvm on Dec 15, 2009 3:15 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

QBs

I wondered about Lyle, too. BTW, Lalich played at Virginia, not Maryland.

I know Bobby D. goes about 50/50 (maybe less) in terms of fan support, but I think he’s been doing a pretty decent job. They don’t call him Bob the Builder for nothing. Facilities are much, much improved in recent years. Plus, if this game could almost cover the budget deficit in one fell swoop, I think he’s smart to get it done.

Plus plus, if Riley likes it, and in Riley we trust…

by sangdorange on Dec 15, 2009 3:11 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I don’t know, I love Lyle and what he has brought to his years at OSU, but I still wonder about bringing in a QB that has so many injuries this year and have to tend to agree with VD Special’s comments that it is maybe time to see what else we have to bring. Lalich is a senior next year (I think?) so if Lyle is the starter then Lalich never sees any game time. And sooner or later we need to get Katz in there I would think for he seems to be the future of the position. But at the same time maybe Lalich is not starter material and maybe Katz needs another year. I don’t know though I’m very mixed about a lot of what has been talked about in this posting thread, so I’m gonna to stop thinking about it for awhile and get back to wondering what we can do against BYU!

-RVM

by rvm on Dec 15, 2009 3:23 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I meant that I wondered if the powers that be knew something about Lyle that hasn’t yet been made public.

by sangdorange on Dec 15, 2009 3:48 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, those were my overall out loud thoughts about the QB situation in general. So thinking about it either way it might go, would it be good or bad if he was around another year, or if he wasn’t then again is that good or bad.

Hope that makes a little sense. Not sure I was directly responding to you but indirectly trying to think about it.

-RVM

by rvm on Dec 15, 2009 3:57 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Bob the Builder? More like Corvallis Slim, or Ice Berg Bobby D...

The guy has done a great job building the program but has unfortunately pimped us like a mid major playing these one and dones at LSU and PSU—now TCU? I appreciate everything he’s done, but I really hope that he will look for more quality non-conf. games for OSU where we can enjoy some home and home series. That’s preferable.

by ArbyOSU on Dec 15, 2009 3:44 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Well, we got a home-and-home with Cincy

how did that work out?

I am Spartacus and I approved this message

by EngineerScotty on Dec 15, 2009 3:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Home and home with Cincy was fine. Sure, I wish we fared better but the team needs to show up. If we’re to only schedule games that we can win, we might as well pound away on the likes of EWU, which isn’t fun for anyone but the second, third and fourth string players…

by ArbyOSU on Dec 15, 2009 3:58 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

We played the undefeated Cincy pretty well I thought this year, obviously they have a damn good coach oh and their QB ain’t bad either. That was a respectable loss in my opinion, and actually was a winnable game if as ArbyOSU stated the team fully showed up.

The road game against them in 2007 was ugly yes, but really actually didn’t matter all that much to that season, and definitely not as much as losing those ugly early Pac-10 games we lost to ASU and UCLA.

-RVM

by rvm on Dec 15, 2009 4:05 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It turned out financially better than the TCU deal

We got a home game and a national tv audience for both games. The TCU trip, like the Penn St. and LSU outings, is a Fresno St. of the Willamette Valley instead of the Central Valley deal.

John Canzano of the Oregonian, and the Duck’s flagship station, likens this to what the UofO has done, and while he is right about getting good visibility, he’s wrong in the notion that this is in any way like the deals the Ducks have done. The Michigan, Boise, Purdue, Indiana, and the upcoming Tennessee deals are all home and home deals, and moving the Civil War didn’t alter the number of home games they had, or hurt the turnstile count at all.

Andy Wooldridge, andy_wooldridge@yahoo.com
Go Beavs!

by AndyPanda on Dec 15, 2009 5:48 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The problems are several

Overall records DO matter, because the bowl berths are NOT going to be slotted; they are just the order of bowls getting to choose, and a team with the same Pac-10 record, but 2 or 3 more non-conference losses will be more unattractive.

It’s also potentially fools gold to think there are lots of easy dollars, and trade a home gate (gross in the millions), and all the related sales, and other dollars later, for the one time payoff.

FIU, from the example, won’t draw over 40,000 for a home game, so they aren’t losing nearly as much as they are gaining in the exchange, and they aren’t going to lose an ABC or FSN game they never would have had later because of the loss either. They can only gain, exposure wise. That’s not the case with a Pac-10 team.

Lest everyone forget a not yet thought to be good OSU team against a thought to be sub .500 UCLA team that didn’t get TV.

And if you schedule like a mid-major, your recruiting rivals will remind recruits of that.

I don’t think these “details” completely escape Bob at all, and that’s why I suspect there is something more that we don’t know about some negotiation. Whether it has to do with QBs, TVs, or something else is the question.

Andy Wooldridge, andy_wooldridge@yahoo.com
Go Beavs!

by AndyPanda on Dec 15, 2009 3:16 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Unforutunately, it seems like

the Freedom Bowl will look for any excuse to avoid scheduling OSU. :) You might be right.

Is the rumored $500k OSUs likely share of the gate, or maybe there is some TV revenue here?

And I gotta ask about the Boise game… it seems that whenever we travel across US 20, there’s always one or two players on the Bronco’s roster who Got Rejected By OSU (or was not recruited), and/or uses that as motivation. Any such talent this time ‘round? And given that BSU is arguably a better football program these days (if nothing else, it has parity with most Pac-10 schools)… don’t such tactics seem silly?

I am Spartacus and I approved this message

by EngineerScotty on Dec 15, 2009 3:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

First of all, kudos to your Beaver nation in scheduling TCU. You officially rate fr above Texas Tech in regards to our respect.

Second of all, although it’s true that TCU is a mere half hour away from the Jerrydome, considering it as a road game is somewhat ridiculous. If all of TCU’s currently living alumni around the world turned up for the Oregon State game, the Jerry dome would still only be half full. TCU is a tiny, tiny school with little fan following in the greater D/FW area until it’s late in the season and it turns out that they’ve been pretty good that year.

Third of all, I have immense respect for your program and your coach, so this should be one hell of a game. Hopefully I’ll be stateside in time to attend. Best of luck against BYU!

by HawkeyedFrog on Dec 20, 2009 7:06 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Have to disagree with you a little there

Homefield advantage doesn’t only include the fans. Like you said, TCU is only half an hour away from Arlington. I’m guessing it’s about a 5 hour plane ride from Corvallis. And from what I’ve seen on TV, despite your size, your fans are still pretty loud. It will be at a neutral site, but I still think you have the advantage.

Vegas Baby!

by ConnorOSU on Dec 20, 2009 7:53 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

And it’s a sure thing that all 20k or so of our regular fans will be there, along with perhaps another 5k of early bandwagon jumpers and well-wishers. As for the other 60k seats… well. It’s hard to say.

by HawkeyedFrog on Dec 21, 2009 5:45 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

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