Autzen Stadium: Will it Make a Difference for Oregon State?
by Jake Bertalotto on Nov 25, 2009 11:13 AM PST
in Football
40 comments
The home team won ten straight. The road team has won the past two.
Does home field advantage in the Civil War really matter?
It's something that's starting to draw some attention as we rev up for the Civil War, especially by our friends over at Addicted to Quack.
I think we can all agree that home field advantage is hard to quantify. As jtlight said in his post, there are so many other factors and variables that come into play. However, they think that the Autzen advantage will play a big roll this year because the Ducks are a much better team at home. The numbers prove it, as jtlight of AtQ shows.
For the sake of comparison, I've basically copied AtQ's math from the aforelinked post and applied it to Oregon State.
The Ducks are out-scoring Pac-10 opponents by 30 points per game at home. On the road, they're only scoring eight more points than their opponents per game. Furthermore, they're out-gaining Pac-10 opponents by 284 yards at home. On the road, that number drops significantly to 49 yards per game. And if you look at all of Oregon's away games combined, the Ducks giving up more yards than their offense is generating.
For some reason, the Oregon team just performs differently at home, and it has Duck fans happy that the Civil War is at Autzen:
But, after Arizona, I'm very glad we don't have any more road games. On the road, something just seems, well, off. Both sides of the ball just simply are not the same. --jtlight
When you look at the numbers for Oregon State, you can see how consistent the Beavers have been at home and on the road. The scoring differential is right around three points. Take a look for yourself:
Copying AtQ's model, here are the Sagarin ratings for OSU's opponents:
Home: 183 (Portland State), 5 (Cincinnati), 22 (Arizona), 19 (Stanford), 37 (UCLA), 53 (Washington)
Away: 95 (UNLV), 59 (Arizona State), 14 (USC), 20 (Cal), 118 (Washington State)
(For those of you looking for the raw, game-by-game statistics that were used to create this chart, that information is available here, with home games highlighted in orange.)
Like the Ducks, Oregon State's road schedule is slightly harder. Oregon State has had to play about half of the toughest Pac-10 games at home (Stanford, Arizona), and half on the road (Cal, USC). Throw in the game against Oregon which has yet to be played, and OSU's road schedule become significantly harder, tipping the scale. Still, Oregon State is playing slightly better on the road.
But still, even when you step outside of analyzing what schedule is harder-- home or away-- the Beavers haven't suffered any let-downs on the road. For the most part, the offense has been playing the same from game-to-game-- and improving, for the most part. As has the defense.
The biggest thing you can point to in the difference between the way OSU plays at home and on the road is rushing yards. Quizz has been shutdown more on the road than he has at home-- Cal held him to 67 yards, and Arizona State held him to 81. In the Cal game especially, this was because of the defense that was being deployed against the Beavers. Cal defensive coordinator Bob Gregory set out to stop Quizz and accomplished the goal, but Sean Canfleid had a hay day in the process.
Other than that, and with exception to the Washington State game, the numbers have been consistent-- but the Beavers are ever so slightly better on the road.
More than anything, I think this proves that the Beavers aren't going to have another let down this year against the Ducks. But we didn't really need to look at statistics to see that-- I think we can agree that the vibe surrounding this team is better overall than it was a year ago. Everybody's healthy. The pressure is lower-- OSU hasn't had the "you control your own destiny" monkey on it's back the past month. The Beavers should be able to play loose.
Oregon State can win in Autzen. That was proven in 2007.
But see, we still have a problem here: Oregon State plays to their average no matter where the game is. But Oregon plays above average at home.
That's what the stats say, anyway.
--Jake (jake.buildingthedam@gmail.com)
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Great analysis Jake and rec for you.
--Dominic, Addicted to Quack
Autzen Stadium is where great teams go to die." - J. Brady McCullough, The Michigan Daily.
by dvieira on Nov 25, 2009 11:25 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Quizz has been shutdown more on the road than he has at home— Cal held him to 67 yards, and Arizona State held him to 81.
Quizz still had good all purpose yardage in those two games, correct? AND we still won them.
On the road for the CW is no picnic, but I believe it’s possible. It’s why they play the games…
by ArbyOSU on Nov 25, 2009 11:29 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Thirty receiving yards vs. Cal, only 1 vs. Arizona State.
http://www.cfbstats.com/2009/player/528/1017877/allpurpose/gamelog.html
--JB--
www.buildingthedam.com
by Jake Bertalotto on Nov 25, 2009 11:34 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He’s just under the magical 100 yard mark, which isn’t bad for a tough down game.
Notice how well the passing game went in those games? Key in on Quizz and another option opens up, just like if we over prepare for the zone read, the pass will kill us.
by ArbyOSU on Nov 25, 2009 11:38 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Plus, I think of getting “shut down” as being completely ineffective, like 8 rushes for -5 yards, a loss for a safety and a few post-game punches.
by ArbyOSU on Nov 25, 2009 12:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Huh?
How ineffective was he against you guys last year? 112 yards and a touchdown. Granted, that 112 yards wasn’t a huge portion of Oregon’s 694 yards and that 1 touchdown wasn’t a huge portion of the 65 points Oregon put up, but they were good stats nonetheless.
Robbie G. "The Beavers Suck"
by RobbieG on Nov 25, 2009 12:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You clearly read my post closely. I mean, you even caught the part where I said, “Blount was so ineffective last year against us! lolololol!”
I was at the game.
I stayed until the bitter end.
And I’m aware he did just fine that day.
You’re tempting juju with that sig, by the way.
by ArbyOSU on Nov 25, 2009 12:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Naw.
Tempting the Juju would be:
The ducks don’t need any help to win this CW.
His sig is just a fact.
by Yarmarkt on Nov 25, 2009 1:36 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
THANK YOU!
Addicted To Quack [dot] com
Officially getting some more often than The VD Special since 2009.
by qrsouther on Nov 25, 2009 6:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
OSU, Riley, and the football program is working towards stepping it up to the big-time. This means winning games on the big stages, Autzen in Dec for the Roses is about as big as it can get.
So I know this isn’t much of an analysis, but I don’t really think the numbers are going to tell the story. The story, for the Beavs, is to step up and prove you belong. If this program under Riley has any chance of going to BCS bowls (Rose Bowl, others, and maybe someday the NC) then it starts Dec. 3, 2009. Time to step it up. I was okay with losing it last year (hell no on the score, but the overall just having it there for the taking and not following through) because I think it surprised about everyone, including the team, that they were in the position to win the conference. But no surprises now, OSU is proving it belongs to be in contention year in and year out. Now can the team prove they are champions?
Just my thoughts, and yes very nice post Jake, thanks!
-RVM
by rvm on Nov 25, 2009 12:03 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I'm in there with you rvm
Last year the talk of the season for the Beav’s (and rightly so) was knocking off then #1 SC. The CW and the chance to go to the RB snuck up on them after the emotional high wore off. They stood at the brink of going to the Grand-Daddy of bowls. The Beav’s slipped and fell. I don’t think they were hungry enough to beat the ducks by seasons end after the close game at UA. Now the Beav’s know what that bitter pill tastes like and will fight as hard as they have to to win this game. Coach Banker took it personal and will have these guys ready.
by RayBeavFan on Nov 25, 2009 8:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The last two home teams
were recently seriously damaged on offense, Dixon for the Ducks in 2007, and Quizz last year for the Beavers. Also, last year the Ducks had a significant preparation advantage with extra time, which had a lot to do with the outcome. Quizz didn’t play defense, and neither does James Rodgers, I realize, but their absence was a factor.
These factors over-rode any home field advantage.
This year that won’t be the case, as both teams have equal preparation, and are relatively healthy. Yes, the Ducks lost Walter Thurmond III, but the Beavers also lost Darryl Catchings. And both were lost some time ago, so the teams have had time to adjust to that.
Home field is a significant advantage in many places in the Pac-10 when the game is otherwise close, and none more so than Autzen. But as RVM points out, the real key to breaking thru to the next level is establishing the ability to win on the road, against a quality opponent in a really big game, in a truly difficult environment, and doing it on a consistent basis.
In recent years, USC did that, and that’s why they were viewed as the elite team from the west. Back in their heyday, UW did that some. The Ducks won in Arizona, and/but that was one game.
This game is close enough otherwise that the home field should be a factor. A Beaver win as the underdog on the road would be an attention getter nationwide.
Andy Wooldridge, andy_wooldridge@yahoo.com
Go Beavs!
by AndyPanda on Nov 25, 2009 12:16 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Also, last year the Ducks had a significant preparation advantage with extra time, which had a lot to do with the outcome.
Both teams are so good after a bye week that this had me worried last year. Sometimes you can say, “Oh, after a week off they’ll come out flat.” but I would never, ever say that about either team in this state. Give the ducks or Beavers a week to prepare and they’ll come out fresh, rested and well prepared.
Even so, the defense failed to show up that day AND failed again when they came out doing the SAME STUFF in the second half. Lesson learned.
by ArbyOSU on Nov 25, 2009 12:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
good coaching
for both schools
"Your best?!?!! Losers always whine about their best. Winners go home and &^%@ the prom queen"
2008 Civil War: Oregon 65 - Oregon State 38
by cloudydays on Nov 25, 2009 4:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I pity the PAC 10 team that sees either Oregon school after a bye week.
by ArbyOSU on Nov 25, 2009 4:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It depends on why
If it’s that for some reason the Ducks don’t travel well, it’s a plus for them. It’s not much travel for the Beavers, but they clearly don’t care.
If it’s the fans – that has to be greatly discounted. At a civil war game, it’s going to be 40/60, with the home team having an edge in fans but there’ll be plenty of cheering for the Beavers. Some stadiums seem to enhance the noise (Qwest Field in Seattle sure does), and that helps the home team. Will be much less of a factor next week, with Beaver fans making plenty of noise.
The sample size of a football season is so small, it might be largely random chance that seems to create such a large home effect for the Ducks (or such a small one for the Beavers), as well. But that’s not as interesting to write about. :)
Wish I could be there! Root for all of us out-of-state Alums, those of you who represent the Orange and Black!
by kirbyk on Nov 25, 2009 1:17 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I wish it was 60/40 but I think just based on season tickets and whatever the visiting allotment is it’ll be a little less favorable than that.
I agree though—if you’re going, make tons of noise for the Beavers!
by ArbyOSU on Nov 25, 2009 1:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
We have been poor on the road...
but I would have to disagree on which road schedule is tougher. @BSU, @UCLA, @UW, @Stanford and @Arizona gives you three of the toughest venues on the west coast in BSU, UW and Arizona. Couple that with the fact that BSU was on national television to open the season, UW was also on regional coverage on ABC, and Arizona was Gameday’s pick for the week, it’s 10x more difficult than @UNLV, @ASU, @USC and @CAL.
@USC was by far the toughest road test OSU faced and everyone else is a far distant 2nd, 3rd and 4th. The Coliseum isn’t exactly a difficult venue, just a tough team. I could not believe Memorial Stadium was so sparsely attended by the time you guys strolled in.
Citing the 2007 game as an example is, well, not analogous in the least bit to the upcoming game. We were not expected to contend. The fact that we were able to have shot in the end was surprising.
by BisonDucks on Nov 25, 2009 2:09 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Not expected to contend
I seem to recall the Duck fans’ attitude prior to the 2007 game as more favorable to their team’s chances than “not expected to contend,” but no matter.
No love for the idea of @Cal as a tough road game? Especially as contrasted to “toughest venue” UW? But you’re right….it can be a tough venue, just not for OSU for quite some time.
10x seems sketchy, mathwise, but I’ll suspend disbelief until you show me your calcs.
by Joe A. on Nov 25, 2009 2:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
10x was bit of hyperbole...
as far as Cal, the crowd was as sparse of a crowd as I can remember in recent years at Memorial Stadium (only to be outdone by the following week when they played AZ). I guess my point is that you have to consider context:
@BSU: tremendous hype for the opening night between two top 15 teams and national coverage.
@Arizona: gameday, voted 3rd toughest venue regardless, geeked up crowd and two team vying for the Rose Bowl late in the season.
@UW: Beat AZ and ’SC at home, 12:30 ABC time slot, renewed enthusiasm still alive at that point in the season and hopes of bowl eligibility (this was actually a game that concerned us).
I just think that we’ve had a tougher road schedule to date. That changes greatly after the Civil War.
by BisonDucks on Nov 25, 2009 3:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Okay, I got my calculator
(carries the 1, divides by 2, checks significant digit assignment)
I believe this is what’s commonly called “pickin’ the fly sh*t out of the pepper.”
Dude, the Fuskies were 3-4 and had just schmeered the bed in Tempe the week before the UO game. So I submit that “renewed enthusiasm” is a bit of a reach, “indecision about the annual self-flagellation party” is maybe more like it. The early season dream had died and it was stinkin’ up the joint from where it got tossed in the garage. Again.
by Joe A. on Nov 25, 2009 4:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
schmeered the bed
I think you just ruined bagels for me. But in all seriousness, I do agree. The Huskies are terrible this year. The whole rivalry thing only took them so far in that game. Before you knew it they were getting handled. It was only a game for about 1/3 of the game, then the ducks woke up and started playing.
Oh, and Jake Locker isn’t that great.
by ArbyOSU on Nov 25, 2009 4:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The point is who has the tougher road tests...
in hindsight UW was very overmatched. However, in the moment it wasn’t a gimmie. Masoli was playing injured, we came off of an unconvincing victory over UCLA, and UW had victories over Arizona, USC, Idaho (undeafeted at the time) and played LSU very tough. In fact, they’d even played compeitive in every game except for the Stanford game. So, there was no reason to believe that we were going to march in their and handle them like we did.
by BisonDucks on Nov 25, 2009 5:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Why are there Duck fans over here trash talking on this blog?
Seriously guys, grow up. Make fun of OAC over at ATQ.
"KENNY WHEATON'S GONNA SCORE!! KENNY WHEATON!!--Jerry Allen, 1994"
by M. Fletcher on Nov 25, 2009 2:25 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
It’s just amateur hour… people show up before the CW to trash talk. I appreciate someone trying to take responsibility for their own but good luck, they’ll probably do whatever they want no matter who complains.
Is OAC really supposed to hurt? Someone will need to explain that one to me.
by ArbyOSU on Nov 25, 2009 2:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Usually if it is a name I don’t recognize, I just assume they are some OLive Troll…
Though I usually think that for anyone that tries to insult anybody with “OAC” or “ucks”
It's spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-P-R-E-T-T-Y"
by JShufelt on Nov 25, 2009 3:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
OLive is where you go to make comments that are only half as irrelevant and inappropriate as the comments on YouTube videos. (Ever notice how homophobic and racist those things are?!)
The worst part of CW season is the newcomer who likes to post things like “(your team) sucks! bwahaha!” OR “(insert last year’s score here)”… the list goes on.
I thought it was spelled “S-H-U-V-3-0-0-0”! What the dude, man??!
by ArbyOSU on Nov 25, 2009 3:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I feel "dirty" going into olive...
by BisonDucks on Nov 25, 2009 3:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
ESPN is also a walk through the slums of humanity. It’s just people arguing and not reading what the other is saying. Plus, a TON of cut-and-paste arguments and insults. Nothing is very original, kind of like coming onto the Beaver forum and saying blah-blah-blah-OAC-blah-blah-blah-Oregon State Sucks!
I know it’s rivalry week but please, if you’re going to talk smack, try to be slightly clever and original.
Unfortunately the “bad ones” this year have just been flexing their intellect, which has been a sad display so far.
by ArbyOSU on Nov 25, 2009 3:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
is this where we start a rash of “Yo Momma!” jokes? TwistNHook would be so proud!
--Dominic, Addicted to Quack
Autzen Stadium is where great teams go to die." - J. Brady McCullough, The Michigan Daily.
by dvieira on Nov 25, 2009 9:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If someone makes one that makes me chuckle,I change it.
It's spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-P-R-E-T-T-Y"
by JShufelt on Nov 25, 2009 3:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Whores expect money. I do it for fun.
That makes me a fluzzie at best.
It's spelled "S-H-U-F-E-L-T-P-R-E-T-T-Y"
by JShufelt on Nov 25, 2009 5:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I really like the "vibe" coming from OSU -- and this game -- right now
Is this perfect for a Riley-coached team, or what?
Biggest Civil War game in history.
Playing your arch-rival on his field.
Decided underdog.
Facing an Oregon offense that embarrassed you the year before in Corvallis.
"It all has to be embraced,’’ said Riley.
There is just something about this game and matchup that I really like for Oregon State. It’s more than likely just me being a homer, and besides, “vibes” can’t win games; but I dunno, I just have a good feeling. As compared to last year where I was terrified heading into the CW without Quizz, and this feels 10000000x better.
"Your best?!?!! Losers always whine about their best. Winners go home and &^%@ the prom queen"
2008 Civil War: Oregon 65 - Oregon State 38
by cloudydays on Nov 25, 2009 4:06 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I feel a lot better having Quizz and although I think the Beavers will have to play one of their best game in all phases of the game from open to close, I really think they can do this. GO BEAVERS.
by ArbyOSU on Nov 25, 2009 4:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
But it deserves being said again...
…this thing I’ve said before, cuz I’m pedantic that way, but I’m much happier when the Beavs are the underdog in an important game.
I can’t change my reputation so I choose to maintain it, therefore my Eeyore-ishness demands that my attitude will rise no higher than “cautiously optimistic.” I like the spread offense, I like a hurry-up offense, anything that disrupts what other teams are used to and is executed properly is admirable. I’m no Duck fan, but what they’ve done offensively makes me a bit envious. This is a true test for Canfield more than anyone else. His tentativeness of the past has been replaced by a goodly amount of sangfroid in the pocket and his tendency to hang onto the ball a bit too long is not gone but steadily getting better. I’ve been waiting to see if he’s the real deal…there’s a good chance we’ll find out shortly. I used to think Masoli was the bomb but he’s been erratic. He and Locker are similar in that regard…great scrambling and faking ability, but can’t bring that touch every game.
by Joe A. on Nov 25, 2009 8:35 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
"cautiously optimistic"
I think this is a very good view to take. Have to admit I do have very similar feelings as cloudydays above, but there is a part of me that also is taking the “cautiously optimistic” route for this game/championship is no easy task and we should not overestimate the Beavers chances.
I do stand by my other comments though, and this game is very much set up to show how this program stacks up on the big stage and if it is ready to break through to become the regular contender it seems on the edge of doing.
-RVM
by rvm on Nov 26, 2009 3:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
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