:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/65036982/usa_today_11480853.0.jpg)
College football season is nearly here! No longer will I have to spend my Saturday’s doing “menial chores” like “mowing the lawn” or making awkward “small talk” at “social events” that I get dragged to. NO SIRREE! Instead, I’ll be locked on my couch from dawn till dusk watching the NCAA take advantage of amateur athletes as they toss the football around for my entertainment. LET’S GOOO!!!
Unfortunately, Oregon State will only play 12 times this season; so what’s a surefire way to increase your entertainment value during college football season? Drive to Vegas and put down some future bets on some random college football teams that you know little to nothing about! Not only could you win some money you can bet against Gary Andersen and root for some random Sun Belt teams. WHAT COULD POSSIBLY GO WRONG?!
For those new to sports betting here’s a quick rundown. The most common bets are on individual games. For example, Oregon State is 15.5 point underdogs in the opener against Oklahoma State; but I think it’s more fun to make season long bets and you can do that by betting on how many regular-season wins a team is going to have. The only confusing thing is the odds/line for these bets; if a team is (+130) that means if you place $100 on that bet you’d win $130 and get back your original $100 bet. If they are (-185) you’d have to bet $185 just to win $100 (plus get your original bet back). It’s pretty straight-forward beyond that and again conference championship games/bowl games don’t count for a teams win total. So here we go, my best bets for win totals during the 2019 season.
#1 - Navy UNDER 5 Wins (+130)
2019 Schedule Prediction (3-9)
- Holy Cross - Win
- East Carolina - Win
- at Memphis - Loss
- Air Force - Loss
- at Tulsa - Loss
- USF - Loss
- Tulane - Loss
- at UConn - Win
- at Notre Dame - Loss
- SMU - Loss
- at Houston - Loss
- Army - Loss
My first bet for the 2019 season is the Navy Midshipmen. For years now Navy has been hugely successful running the triple-option and have had no problems winning 8+ games a year in the AAC. But last year the wheels fell off and they finished with a 3-10 record. The coach is ticked that administration isn’t giving him the same level of support that a school like Army is getting (projected to win 10 games in 2019). And it appears there’s trouble in paradise with Navy as S&P rankings projects them to win just 3.7 games in 2019. Navy just isn’t surpassing five wins with this schedule and they certainly aren’t getting to 6+ wins for bowl-eligibility. Take the under here.
#2 - Oklahoma State OVER 7 Wins (-145)
2019 Schedule Prediction (8-4)
- at Oregon State - Win
- McNeese State - Win
- at Tulsa - Win
- at Texas - Loss
- Kansas State - Win
- at Texas Tech - Win
- Baylor - Loss
- at Iowa State - Loss
- TCU - Win
- Kansas - Win
- at West Virginia - Win
- Oklahoma - Loss
Generally I like placing bets on the ‘under’ just because I think fans can get overly optimistic during the off-season and drive their win total numbers too high, but this one was too good to pass up. Mike Gundy and Oklahoma State hasn’t had a losing record since 2005 (his first season). They disappointed last season (7-5 record); so even if they disappoint again you’ll break even on this win total and get your money back. I don’t think they’ll disappoint though; Tylan Wallace is one of the best wide receivers in the nation and Chuba Hubbard is an exceptional running back. Also, am I the only one who thinks the BIG 12 is generally overrated? Lastly, if Oklahoma State does beat the Beavers in the opener it’ll soften the blow for your Beaver fandom as you’re one step closer to winning this bet.
#3 - Troy OVER 6.5 Wins (-185)
2019 Schedule Prediction (8-4)
- Campbell - Win
- Souther Mississippi - Win
- at Akron - Win
- Arkansas State - Win
- at Missouri - Loss
- South Alabama - Win
- at Georgia State - Win
- at Coastal Carolina - Win
- Georgia Southern - Loss
- at Texas State - Win
- at Louisiana - Loss
- Appalachian State - Loss
Alright I’ll admit it, I’m not an expert on Troy football or the Sun Belt Conference. S&P is projecting Troy to win 7.9 games though. ESPN’s FPI has them favored in 8 games. And Troy is just one of those teams I always end up watching in a random bowl game. Watching Troy for the first time in 2019 beat some random MAC team in the Dollar General Bowl is going to be way more satisfying knowing they won me some money.
#4 - New Mexico UNDER 5 Wins (-185)
2019 Schedule Prediction (3-9)
- Sam Houston State - Win
- at Notre Dame - Loss
- New Mexico State - Win
- at Liberty - Loss
- at San Jose State - Loss
- Colorado State - Win
- at Wyoming - Loss
- Hawaii - Loss
- at Nevada - Loss
- Air Force - Loss
- at Boise State - Loss
- Utah State - Loss
As you might have figured out I relied heavily on S&P projections and ESPN’s FPI rankings to find overvalued/undervalued teams. New Mexico stuck out as one of those teams because well the New Mexico Lobos are BAD. Projected to win just 3.9 games, I don’t see them getting to 5 and definitely don’t see them getting bowl eligible. New Mexico is consistently a bottom-feeder team in the Mountain West and 2019 won’t be different.
#5 - Arkansas UNDER 5 Wins (+125)
2019 Schedule Prediction (4-8)
- Portland State - Win
- at Ole Miss - Loss
- Colorado State - Win
- San Jose State - Win
- Texas A&M - Loss
- at Kentucky - Loss
- Auburn - Loss
- at Alabama - Loss
- Mississippi State - Loss
- Western Kentucky - Win
- at LSU - Loss
- Missouri - Loss
Speaking of bottom-feeder teams, Arkansas gets that honor playing in the SEC West. The razorbacks really laid an egg in 2018, finishing 2-10. Second year head coach Chad Morris is looking to turn the program around kind of like Jonathan Smith at Oregon State but the Beavers don’t have to play in the SEC West against foes like Alabama, LSU, Auburn and others every season. Arkansas is favored in just four games and I don’t think the game against WKU is a given, take the under in 2019.
#6 - Hawaii OVER 5.5 Wins (-125)
2019 Schedule Prediction (7-6)
- Arizona - Loss
- Oregon State - Win
- at Washington - Loss
- Central Arkansas - Win
- at Nevada - Loss
- at Boise State - Loss
- Air Force - Win
- at New Mexico - Win
- Fresno State - Win
- San Jose State - Win
- at UNLV - Loss
- San Diego State - Win
- Army - Loss
This one is a tough one because you might find yourself rooting against your beloved Beavers, but here’s the thing... Hawaii (through some NCAA loop-hole) gets to play 13 regular-season games each season. That means they could have a losing record (6-7) and you’d still win this bet. Hawaii is projected to win around 6 games and I think their offense could lead them to even more.
#7 - Utah State UNDER 7 Wins (-102)
2019 Schedule Prediction (5-7)
- at Wake Forest - Loss
- Stony Brook - Win
- at San Diego State - Loss
- Colorado State - Win
- at LSU - Loss
- Nevada - Win
- at Air Force - Loss
- BYU - Loss
- at Fresno State - Loss
- Wyoming - Win
- Boise State - Loss
- at New Mexico - Win
Well well well... Look who went crawling back to his old school to salvage what’s left of his reputation, MR. GARY ANDERSEN. Honestly, Utah State could be decent and they have a very talented QB in Jordan Love; but he’s got no one to throw it too. Also the petty side of me just can’t help but bet against Gary Andersen given the opportunity.
#8 - BYU OVER 6.5 Wins (-115)
2019 Schedule Prediction (7-5)
- Utah - Loss
- at Tennessee - Loss
- USC - Loss
- Washington - Loss
- at Toledo - Win
- at South Florida - Win
- Boise State - Loss
- at Utah State - Win
- Liberty - Win
- Idaho State - Win
- at UMass - Win
- at SDSU - Win
Full disclosure there’s a conflict of interest on this one as I’m a BYU fan (I’m also betting the over for Oregon State even though my head says it’s a bad idea). But I think BYU is undervalued going into 2019. As an independent school their schedule is kind of flipped (tough games early, cupcakes late in the season). BYU could start off with four straight losses (not a given) and still surpass 6.5 wins.
These eight future bets won’t make you rich. If you put $10 down on each team and everything went perfectly you’ll end up winning about $70 (plus you’ll get your original $80 back), but hey it’ll give you a reason to stay glued to your couch this fall and really isn’t that what everyone strives for?
*All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook