An average week 5, brings the picks for the season to a (16-8-1) overall record. The Beavers return to action this weekend against UCLA and I’m learning to not bet against Oregon State (3-1 ATS). The Beavers covered the Stanford game by half a point, they also failed to cover the Oklahoma State by half a point, ay caramba! Anyways, onto this weeks picks.
*Picks in italics, odds courtesy of FanDuel.
#1 - Oklahoma State (-9.5) vs. Texas Tech
Texas Tech lost soundly to a very average (being generous here) Arizona team a couple of weeks ago. Oklahoma State is one of just a handful of teams that is undefeated against the spread this season (4-0 ATS). Take the Cowboys here, they’re going to win by double-digits.
4 teams remain undefeated ATS— Football Predictions (@FootballGlory19) September 29, 2019
5 teams remain winless ATS
#2 - Oregon State (+5.5) vs. UCLA
Oregon State despite being just 1-3 on the season are (3-1 ATS). The Beavs barely covered last week against Stanford and the only game they lost against the spread was by half a point to Oklahoma State! I think the Beavers are criminally underrated here; the line opened at UCLA (-6.5) and I wish I grabbed it early; but I still think this is good value.
#3 - Cal (+18) vs. Oregon
Despite losing to ASU this past weekend Cal has a good defense and is an above average football team. Oregon is potentially elite, but 18 points better than Cal? I don’t think so. At the very least I think Cal’s defense will hold Oregon under 30 points. That means their offense just needs 13 points or so. Very likely, I’m taking Cal.
#4 - Texas (-11) vs. West Virginia
Texas Texas Texas... While I do think the Longhorns are generally overrated (2-2 ATS), I don’t believe in this rebuilding West Virginia team. I think Texas wins with ease, too much of a talent gap in this conference game.
#5 - Air Force (-2.5) vs. Navy
My last pick of the week has Air Force taking care of business against a fellow armed forces college. Air Force is an impressive 3-1 with win a win against Colorado and mostly competitive lose to Boise State. I think Air Force wins by a touchdown over Navy.
I checked these odds on FanDuel yesterday and they have been moving quickly. For what it’s worth I also like Army, Iowa and Iowa State this weekend. Go Beavers!