Oregon State over/under 3.5 wins?

With Oregon State's football season set to start just under two months from now, it's not too early to look at what the national media is saying about Oregon State's upcoming season.

The early over-under win totals are out from VegasInsider, and they've included a projection for Oregon State. Vegas projects Oregon State to win 3.5 games for the 2016 season. How hard will it be for the Beavers to get 4 wins?

SBNation.com's preview calculated Oregon State's win probability for each game and came up with exactly four projected wins.

Getting to four wins may not be as easy as it sounds though. The only game Oregon State is favored in according to their win probability projection is the second game of the season against Idaho State (96%). Their best chances to pick up victories after that according to the same model are versus Arizona (45%), Colorado (40%), California (40%), and Washington State (40%). Finishing with four or more wins might require the Beavers to get some good fortune with a healthy roster and some nice late game bounces.

ESPN's FPI model mostly agrees with Vegas' projection as they place Oregon State's projected win total at 3.4 wins based on the 10,000 simulations they run.

Of course, it's very possible that the projections are wrong and Oregon State will be much better than the experts think, or the Beavers opponents will be worse than expected. If that's how you feel, you could make a modest profit putting your money where your mouth is.

Regardless, expectations for Oregon State are not sky high this year. From Vegas to ESPN's FPI to SbNation's projections the Beavers are expected to win around 3 or 4 games. I expect Oregon State to be much more competitive this year and could see them getting four or more wins if things go their way.