Evaluating the Beaver Basketball Postseason Chances

This is the exact opposite where I hoped the team would mercifully end and instead they played in the CBI and lost to Radford. Tinkle has brought in a different atmosphere, an era of actual basketball, where the players play within an offense instead of playing YMCA ball and play hard-nosed defense. With only 9 scholarship players however it will still be a struggle as the games last week proved.

Connor Letourneau of the Oregonian took a look a couple weeks ago. At the time based on last years records and OSU's projected wins they had a good shot at the NIT. Things have changed a little bit, as the struggles on the road become more prominent but they continue to be dominant at home. Their RPI is sitting at 68, so let's take a look at how last year's NCAA tournament and NIT fields looked like based on RPI and Ken Pomeroy's rankings (found at kenpom.com).

NCAA Tournament

This is a list of all the at-large teams from last year's tournament. The RPI is the most telling statistic, as only 2 schools were outside of the top 55 and no one was outside of the top 60 in the KenPom rankings. Colorado was well rated in the Pomeroy rankings, and was ranked for a time last season which explains how they got in thanks to a positive public opinion. Xavier is admittedly confusing, as they did not beat any real notable names or garner any votes. Iowa was the 60th ranked Pomeroy team and they were ranked for much of the year and never in real danger, plus their losses to many good teams put them high in the RPI.

Unless Oregon State goes on an incredible run, it seems that making the tournament is a stretch, although more on that at the end.

NIT:

RPI courtesy of NIT Bracket Project.

Pulled from kenpom.com

The NIT is a fairly safe bet although it was not after the Beavers got swept in the state of Arizona when they moved down into the 80s of the RPI. The lowest RPI was 88 which belonged to West Virginia. The majority of at large bids are all in the 70-80 range which Oregon State is currently sitting just above. The Pomeroy rankings show a similar range, where most of the Power 5 teams are around 50-60.

If Oregon State can just split they have a real shot to make the NIT, every game is winnable although @UCLA and @Furd will be difficult, along with playing an excellent Utah team at home. USC is in trouble although they played Colorado extremely close and only lost to Cal on an absurd buzzer-beater, Colorado and Cal have been mediocre, the Civil War is always a toss up, but all four of those are winnable, If they can take those four, or even three of those four with a win in the tournament could make an NIT bid all but certain.

The tournament will be a stretch unless the Beavers win the Pac-12 tournament or somehow sweep through the rest of the year. Without that it will be tough though, just ask Kevin O'Neill who has gone from saying the Beavs are an NIT lock to saying they just don't have any talent. Oregon State does not get any respect right now. They are going to be required to force the mindset of the media, to get rid of the underdog story and become a team just as deserving as any other.

If the Beavers do slide it would be interesting to see if they would consider entering the CBI, if it would actually make money, or at least stay neutral on the financial front. The greater whiplash might be from a fanbase which watched that tournament be the end of several frustrating years. It would be great to watch this team play though, and after all they've done this year they deserve to get to play some sort of postseason.

It is fair to hold out hope for the NIT though, and it seems realistic at this point in time, with a split in the Southern California road trip the Beavers will be that much closer to significant post-season play.