This isn't the post I expected to write on the night before the 16 regional hosts are announced, but after losing four games in a row the Beavers have found themselves on the bubble to host a Regional next weekend in Corvallis. The way I see it, Oregon State, Clemson, TCU, and Southern Miss are the four teams vying for the final three spots. As we have done the last couple of times, lets take a look at the resumes of the final four teams:
Boyd's World RPI: 28
Boyd's World SOS: 42
Good Wins: Gonzaga (2), Connecticut, Arizona (2), Arizona State (3), Stanford (3), UCLA (2), California (2)
Boyd's World RPI: 8
Boyd's World SOS: 24
Good Wins: South Carolina, Elon (2), NC State (2), Coastal Carolina, Georgia Tech (3), Florida State (2)
Boyd's World RPI: 19
Boyd's World SOS: 68
Good Wins: Baylor (2), Cal State Fullerton, New Mexico (5), Texas A&M, Oklahoma State (2)
Boyd's World RPI: 20
Boyd's World SOS: 67
Good Wins: Connecticut, Rice
Out of these four teams, I think Oregon State, TCU, and Southern Miss get in. Despite Oregon State's awful finish to the season, no one can compete with their good wins. Sweeps of Arizona State and Stanford were huge for the Beavers.
I also think TCU gets in, and rather comfortably. They are in the Top 20 of the RPI which isn't great, but it's not bad either. Their "Good Wins" section is also very good. Two wins against a solid 2 seed in Oklahoma State, another 2 against a solid 2 seeded Baylor team, and FIVE wins against a tournament team in New Mexico.
The last spot is completely unpredictable. I have a gut feeling that it will be the Golden Eagles though. Clemson might have the better resume, but who knows how the selection committee will factor RPI in. A possibility is that Southern Miss could host as a 2 seed.
According to Baseball America's Arron Fitt, he thinks that Oregon State is comfortably in as a Regional host, and that Clemson and TCU will be the final two hosts. He says that Southern Miss will be the last team out.
I also asked him about the possibility of Oregon State being a 2 seed and hosting. He says that could happen because of our low RPI, and a team from somewhere other than the west coast would be shipped into Corvallis as a 1 seed.
The way I see it, the committee could name us as a host tomorrow, and either make us a 1 or a 2 seed depending on if we win tomorrow against Oregon. Or maybe if we share the Pac-10 title with UCLA instead of the Bruins winning it outright. Who knows?
Here's a link to a post by Ryan Rosenblatt on why the committee should wait until after all of Sunday's games before deciding on who hosts the regionals. I totally agree with what he's saying, even if it does hurt Oregon State. Make sure to check it out, it's a great post.
The Regional Host Sites will be announced at 12:30 PM Pacific on NCAA.com tomorrow afternoon. The open thread for the Oregon game will be up at 11:15 tomorrow and you can use that to discuss the game as well as our hosting possibilities.
So, wear your pajamas inside out, flush an ice cube down the toilet, and say your prayers. Tomorrow's going to be a good day.
I'll see everyone in the morning.