Throughout the season, the NCAA keeps its RPI (Relative Power Index) rankings secret until the tournament field is released. Luckily, we have Boyd's World, a website that has researched and perfected the RPI forumla to deliver us updates throughout the season. Boyd's World also produces a statistic called ISR-- or Iterative Strength Rating. Here's how Boyd's World defines the ISR:
The ISR's are the results of an algorithm designed to measure the quality of a team's season to date by combining their winning percentage with the difficulty of their schedule. The algorithm computes all teams simultaneously and attempts to take advantage of inter-regional games more accurately than other rating systems.
What the website has done is taken these ISR numbers and turned them into projections for the NCAA tournament. After the break, you will find the odds for each regional, as well as the chances a team has to advance to the Super Regoinals, Omaha, and beyond.
Here's the breakdown of the Gainesville Regional:
KEY: First number indicates probability of winning the Regional. Second number indicates probability of winning Super Regional, and advancing to Omaha. Third number indicates probably of advancing to the championship series, and fourth number indicates the probability of winning it all.
A couple notes...
- By far, Oregon and Oregon State have the best chances of winning their regionals among 3-seeds. They're also the only two 3-seeds in the bracket who have a better probability of winning their regional than their 2-seed counterpart. Oregon has been given a 31% chance of winning the Norwich regional, while Oregon State has a 26% chance of advancing to the Super Regionals out of Gainesville.
- These ISR numbers suggest that the Gainesville Regional will come down to Florida and Oregon State. In order to be the best you have to beat the best, right?
- Likely due to the strong strength of schedule that all Pac-10 teams have, the ISR numbers like Pac-10 teams to do well. Six of the eight teams have over a 20% chance of advancing out of their regional, and only two are 1-seeds. Stanford falls below that mark in the Fullerton regional, and Arizona has the odds stacked against them in Forth Worth against TCU and Baylor.
- Despite being a 3-seed, the Beavers have a 13.5 percent chance of advancing to Omaha. Yeah, they've gotta go out and play, and yeah, the Beavers won't have Stefen Romero, but that's got to make you feel good. I'm sure we had worse odds in 2006 and 2007.
- Toughest regionals: Los Angeles, with UCLA, LSU and UC Irvine. Fort Worth, with TCU, Baylor, and Arizona.
- Best locks to advance out of regionals: Arizona State in Tempe, Coastal Carolina in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina in Columbia, and Cal State Fullerton.
Tempe // Fayetteville // Atlanta // Auburn
Myrtle Beach // Columbia // Charlottesville // Norman
Austin // Fort Worth // Norwich // Louisville
Gainesville // Coral Gables // Los Angeles // Fullerton
All statistics pulled from Boyd's World.