In case you have missed it, I have a spread sheet I created using the Sagarin Predictor values and the Pac-12 schedule to create a prediction for the conference at the end of the year. It is dynamic as upsets happen but it does give a good idea of what to expect, and what to watch for.

The games this past weekend changed almost nothing for any team in conference. It pains me to type it but Oregon grabbed the only upset. As a result they moved up a few spots and helped drop WSU.

For OSU, the Cal game Thursday was predicted as a win last week but now is a predicted loss. But that prediction is still by less than a point. This loss is why OSU dropped to 4th in conference predictions this week. It goes without saying, there needs to be an upset Thursday. The Stanford game Saturday is a predicted win. It is one of only three games that Stanford is predicted to lose this year in conference. That is quite the compliment.

In other games, watch for the Arizona loss at UCLA. It must happen to give OSU a shot at 3rd in conference. It is possible AZ could also lose at USC as Sagarin only gives AZ a 1.5 point advantage. An interesting note is that the UW@CU and WSU@CU games are close enough that CU could win either. That would help keep UW and/or WSU off our heals. I know we also would like to see the ducks get swept but if they split this weekend then they help us in our efforts to catch Stanford or Cal as long as OSU takes care of business. The flip side is the RPI argument. Do we really want our best teams in conference losing any unnecessary games?

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Just want to try something new. Please listen to this preview and comment on how I am doing!

Sadly, I can't make a fanpost that has less than 75 words, so please ignore the other parts below because I need to fill the quota.

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All of the Pac-12 non-conference games are over except for Colorado. They open conference play with Utah on Saturday so they filled up with New Orleans, a D2 school I guess. From here on out I will try to update once a week on, let's say, Wednesday nights.

All I can say now is that Sagarin thinks there will be some tight games played this weekend. He thinks OSU will lose but by less than a point. Folks, these games are VERY winnable.

The standings have changed to reflect future wins at home against Cal and Stanford next weekend. These too are tight and could go any way. That helps to bump the Beavs up to 3rd in the conference.

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As I’m sure you know, the conference schedule for the Pac-12 this year is a bit different from past conference schedules because it is now the Pac-12 and not the Pac-10. Like years past, each team will play an eighteen game conference schedule, but, unlike years past, teams will play unbalanced schedules. Rather than play every other team in the conference twice, each team will play seven teams twice and four teams once.

I dig around in Pac-10 history quite a bit to try and get a sense of how the current season might play out, but, every time I do, I get this nagging feeling that it’s not quite right. Sure, it's mostly the same teams, but the structure is different this year. Will that affect the outcome?

My curiosity on the matter flirted with my free time for a while, convinced it to go on a few dates, drank a little too much one night, and, voila, it’s a post!

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The non-conference schedule is over for OSU and some things have changed since the last post. California pulled into a tie with Stanford, the Washington schools flip flopped, UCLA is getting better, and Utah upset Portland but still looks to tie our old record for conference futility.

But that is not why I am excited to post this today. The big news is how winnable the next 5 games have become.

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With a 10-2 record, the OSU Beavers are heading to the Pac-12 portion of the schedule with as high a spirit as Mr. Ho Ho Ho. But can they maintain the gusto against a group of tougher teams? Sure, the Pac is down this year, but I would take the likes of USC, UCLA, ASU as to Portland State, Cal State Bakersfield and Chicago State. More importantly, these teams will have a good chance to win a matchup if we screw around and start slow. They have the talent level to do so.

So what can the Beavs do to prevent the "upsets" from happening? Firstly, we need to talk about our strengths and what we are doing well this season. This year, with the athletes the Beavers have, there has been a lot of talk concerning our change in philosophies on both ends of the floor. Instead of sitting back on a zone, we prefer a man-up press up strategy. More importantly, OSU will now go up and down the floor relentlessly too.

So far this change has worked on the offensive end of the floor. OSU is averaging around 82 points a game on 49% shooting overall. We are also going to the line with impunity too, 313 tries over 12 games, with an average of 26 FTs a game. It's also a good thing that we are not relying on one guy to pour it on. Jared, above (photo by Andy Wooldridge) has plenty of company with Collier, Burton, Nelson, Starks, and Brandt. Moreland is a guy who can get you 6 points and 6 boards. In short, we have plenty of options who can lead the team in scoring.

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The Beavers basketball team has announced their goal for the year is to make the NCAA tournament. This is a laudable goal, but it has been made more difficult by the overall poor performance of Pac-12 teams during the non-conference schedule. This poor performance means the Pac-12 will probably get only two or three bids to the dance. The outside stretch would be to get four bids.

The Beavers have done well in the out of conference season, but their strength of schedule is rated amongst the lowest in the country. While we expect that the Beavers will beat Chicago State tomorrow, a loss to Chicago State would probably end the hope for a bid to the tournament. The selection committee would view that as a very ugly loss. For argument's sake, let's assume that the Beavers win by 20 points in Chicago. This will give them a 10-2 non-conference record.

What conference record will be needed to make the tournament? Last year, third place Washington had a 11-7 conference record to go with a 20-10 overall record and made the tournament. Given the weakness of the non-conference schedule and the weakness of the conference, 11-7 is likely to be the minimum record to have a chance. Definitely bubble team at that level. My guess is that 12-6 or 13-5 will be required for the Beavers to make the tournament given that they have not been to the tournament in 20 years.

The Beavers first five conference games are against Washington, Washington State, Cal, Stanford and Arizona. These are a good part of the tough section of the schedule. The Beavers need to come out of these games at least 2-3, but preferably 3-2 to make the tournament. You have to be good to make the tournament and this section of the schedule will tell the tale. By the middle of January, we will have a good sense of this team.

(Photo by Andy Wooldridge)

Fast Facts

Opponent's name: CSU Cougars

Conference: None

Record so far: 0-11

Head Coach: Tracy Dildy (2nd year)

Key player to watch: Jeremy Robinson (leading scorer and blocks person. Most efficient scorer)

Life as a DI Independent is not really easy. There's no real incentive, no end goal as the NCAA Tournament is impossible to reach (even for those in the Great West Conference). There won't be many high-end talents walking in either. But for CSU this year, things are especially rough for this season. So far they are winless a third into the season (even sad sack NJIT is doing better), and the Coogs look really bad in almost every contest. To their credit, they play a rough schedule, with good teams like Illinois, Wichita State and Creighton, but that doesn't excuse them from getting blown out in all but a handful of contests. Simply put, it's going to be a long year for Dildy's squad.

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I updated the spreadsheet from earlier in the week. The Beavers have moved up into the top 60 in the Sagarin ratings as of today. This helps to keep hope alive for an NCAA bid. Their results improved by one win in conference as the ratings now imply that they can beat Oregon on "the court with orange trees".

It appears that Texas (84.14) is the best team the Beavs have played and should be the third hardest team they play all season behind Stanford (89.38) and Cal (86.13). It is also interesting that the Idaho team (78.11) is currently rated about the same as Vanderbilt (79.25).

I also wanted to point out that Sagarin has OS rated higher than WSU and AZ but the Beavers could finish lower in the standings. This is due to our new unbalanced schedule of the Pac-12. Guess who only has to play Cal and Stanford once. Hint, it is not the Beavs.

Below is the predicted final conference standings and the predicted results of the remaining OS schedule. Enjoy.

I am a bit of a spreadsheet junkie. I created a spreadsheet that uses Pac-12 teams schedule and the Sagarin Predictor ratings for every team and their opponents to get this seasons predicted final standings. Of course you can't predict injuries, suspensions, death of friends, and other bad mojo but it does give you an idea of what teams are doing right now. I like this spreadsheet because it helps me to understand who is good and who is bad and by how much.

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