Let me say finally, this just flat out is not working well. Sagarins calculations had OSU as high as finishing 3rd in the conference. That has fallen apart and OSU has fallen to 7th. There are 7 games left in conference and Sagarin predicts they will win all 5 of the home games. They have lost only one game this year that they should not have lost and that was to ASU. They were predicted early on to beat CU and didn't. But leading up to that game Sagarin's number predicted a loss. OSU beat the ducks in Eugene but Sagarin predicted they would. They upset Cal but lost to Stanford in a game Sagarin thought OSU should have won. In the end they are pretty much doing what they were predicted to do. They are on pace to win 20 games. The real problem is with Oregon, CU, and Washington. Sagarin did not see them coming. This is now the home stretch, literally.

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Should I eat crow or was it just a reverse jinx? The big suprise last week was Washington. UW helped to drop AZ's predicted record and of course helped their own cause. So with the Civil War win you would think that the same thing would happen for OSU and UO, but no. Remember, OSU was predicted to win the civil war. The trouble is with Thursdays game. The Colorado game has flopped from a win to a loss due to CU's blowout at USC. The spread is still by half of a half of a point. But because of this Colorado is now predicted to finish in a three way tie with OSU and Washington. Oregon reaps the benefit of this by moving into a two way tie with AZ. So, what needs to happen to change the Sagarin future? Here is what I am hoping for in the games this week. None of this is a stretch of the Sagarin imagination.

1. Oregon State needs to upset CU tommorrow and beat Utah Saturday.

2. UCLA needs to upset UW tommorrow.

3. CAL is predicted to beat UA and they better do it tommorrow.

4. Stanford is predicted to beat UA and they better do it too.

5. The Ducks need to lose to CU on Saturday.

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Last week was good for what ailed us in Beaver Nation. The biggest surprise was that WSU beat Cal. Sagarin thought they were 5.5 point dogs. It helps to put some perspective on what the Sagarin point spread can tell us. If the spread is within 6 and the underdog is at home then the game is a toss up. With that in mind I give you the OSU-UO spread. OSU is favored by 0.23 pts. That's right, less than one half of one half of one point. It is the closest spread of any game in the Pac this weekend. Good thing they are saving it for Sunday, Sunday, Sunday. My heart is with OSU but my money is on Oregon. That spread is too close for the home dog to really lose.

The wins last week helped to push the Beavs back to higher in the standings. Sagarin predicts them to finish 4th again but this time they are tied with the Ducks. That still has them meeting Oregon in the second round of the Pac-12 tournament. Somehow, someway, the Beavs will finish 4th. That is kind of hard to believe.

I checked the RPI recently and the Beavs are somewhere around 140 and the Ducks are around 60. Sagarin on the other hand loves the Beavs more and has them around 55 in Predictor and 73 overall while the Ducks hover around 100 in both Sagarin ratings. I have put a lot of time into this Sagarin thing and I hope he turns out to be right.

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Last week seemed so bad that I didn't even want to do this FanPost. The Beavs needed a split and didn't get it. Worse yet, Oregon swept. But, like the Beavs, I will finish what I started for better or worse. Besides, the numbers might find a silver lining.

This week OSU must sweep to keep any hope of winning record in conference alive. As it is now, Sagarin predicts them to finish 9-9, tied with Colorado and way behind Oregon at 12-6. This puts OSU at the 5 seed. And that got me thinking. What about the Pac-12 tournament? So I put together a spreadsheet that seeds the teams based on a 12 team single elimination format. I don't know if this is the exact format the Pac-12 will use, but after a little looking around the uncensored web it seems like it is highly likely that this is their only option. I have been using Sagarin's Predictor ratings so I simply put those current ratings head to head with no home court advantage. I also noted the point spread. The results are awesome. Currently OSU is the 5th seed which starts off with the 12th seed, Utah. We then meet 4th seed Oregon and beat them, don't ask me how right now, then face the one seed Cal in the semis. Ah Cal. That is the silver lining I was looking for.

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In case anyone missed Sergey's find, which Connor noted in a comment, here's the recent ESPN featuring Benny.

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Quick Note: Just like football, hopefully, this is the last time I write this. But I think I'll probably have to write this type of editorial often just so our team can "Wake Up"

Our Basketball team started out really well. Right before we went into conference play, we only lost to two teams. One really ugly, one really close to tough opponent. Coming into conference play, everyone had really high expectation, including myself, to try to get to the big dance, or at least make the NIT.

Now with the loss to the Sun Devils, I can only say, our players AND coaches have lost all focus. They are making stupid mistakes, really REALLY stupid mistakes that should not even happen at all. Take a look at Stanford game. We were up by 10+ points at one time, only to BLOW IT AWAY and lose in 4 OT. Simply put, beyond unacceptable under any standards.

The coaches even know this, but I don't think they are using correct method to correct these mistakes. And Players, I don't think they are not even doing anything at all to fix these mistakes. They have lost any, if not ALL focus. I know they probably want to improve, but they are not taking anything seriously. I almost begin to wonder if they have any attitude toward winning.

I think the only solution at this point is this: Start over. Tear everything down, and just rebuild from scratch. I know I'm being harsh, but for last three years, I haven't seen any improvement at all. In fact, we are regressing faster like a runaway truck. I gave my paitent, but after this 1-6 conference start, I am losing any hope, and we are making same mistakes over, and over, and over.

Enough is enough. Unless Coaches and Players (Yes, players, I told myself to not blame the college players, but I had enough) It's time to tear everything down, and start over. Coaches needs to do a lot more for these young talented players, and for players, they simply need to grow up, and stop being childish and make High School Mistakes. Some of these mistakes players make is really fundamentals that should've been corrected before coming into college levels.

Last week, Oregon St got the split that Sagarin predicted, but they got the games backwards and beat the tougher team. Oregon surprised again and got a split. Arizona lost like they needed to and Washington and Washington St did us a big favor by losing to Colorado.

CU must be loving their decision to move to the Pac-12.That good feeling will surely go away this weekend after they visit the bay area and get swept. The Beaver State teams should split their games in desert by beating ASU.

The final standings predictions have not changed at the top. We find OSU slipping away from Arizona and back solely in 4th place. The game against AZ tomorrow is not a must win, but if it happens then 3rd place in conference becomes a whole lot easier. The real pressure will be to win at ASU on Saturday. Oregon is only two games back in 5th. That is almost too close for comfort.

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Here's my preview for OSU vs. Cal. A key game, no doubt.

What I'll talk about in the video... after the jump!

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In case you have missed it, I have a spread sheet I created using the Sagarin Predictor values and the Pac-12 schedule to create a prediction for the conference at the end of the year. It is dynamic as upsets happen but it does give a good idea of what to expect, and what to watch for.

The games this past weekend changed almost nothing for any team in conference. It pains me to type it but Oregon grabbed the only upset. As a result they moved up a few spots and helped drop WSU.

For OSU, the Cal game Thursday was predicted as a win last week but now is a predicted loss. But that prediction is still by less than a point. This loss is why OSU dropped to 4th in conference predictions this week. It goes without saying, there needs to be an upset Thursday. The Stanford game Saturday is a predicted win. It is one of only three games that Stanford is predicted to lose this year in conference. That is quite the compliment.

In other games, watch for the Arizona loss at UCLA. It must happen to give OSU a shot at 3rd in conference. It is possible AZ could also lose at USC as Sagarin only gives AZ a 1.5 point advantage. An interesting note is that the UW@CU and WSU@CU games are close enough that CU could win either. That would help keep UW and/or WSU off our heals. I know we also would like to see the ducks get swept but if they split this weekend then they help us in our efforts to catch Stanford or Cal as long as OSU takes care of business. The flip side is the RPI argument. Do we really want our best teams in conference losing any unnecessary games?

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Just want to try something new. Please listen to this preview and comment on how I am doing!

Sadly, I can't make a fanpost that has less than 75 words, so please ignore the other parts below because I need to fill the quota.

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