NCAA Baseball Bracketology: May 15

Tony Kemp And Vanderbilt Are My #1 Overall Seed - Samuel M. Simpkins

May Madness Ya'll

Below are my projections for the 64 team NCAA Baseball field, which will be released on May 27. This is the initial look, and beginning early next week we will take a more in-depth look as conference tournaments and bubble slots are decided. Please comment and question below.

Nashville Regional
1. Vanderbilt (1)*
4. Tennessee Tech*

2. South Alabama*
3. Coastal Carolina
Bloomington Regional
1. Indiana*
4. Holy Cross*

2. Virginia Tech
3. Seton Hall
Chapel Hill Regional
1. North Carolina (2)*
4. Western Carolina*

2. UNC Wilmington*
3. Troy
Columbia Regional
1. South Carolina
4. Maine*

2. Campbell
3. Stanford
Fullerton Regional
1. Cal State Fullerton (3)*
4. Cal State Bakersfield*

2. New Mexico*
3. San Diego
Starkville Regional
1. Mississippi State
4. Bryant*

2. Clemson
3. North Florida
Baton Rouge Regional
1. LSU (4)
4. Sam Houston State*

2. Rice
3. Louisiana-Lafayette
Tempe Regional
1. Arizona State
4. Buffalo*

2. Mississippi
3. Miami (Florida)
Corvallis Regional
1. Oregon State (5)*
4. Nebraska-Omaha*

2. Gonzaga*
3. Cal Poly
Fayetteville Regional

1. Arkansas
4. Rider*

2. Georgia Tech
3. Kansas State*
Charlottesville Regional
1. Virginia (6)
4. Charlotte*

2. Pittsburgh*
3. West Virginia
Louisville Regional
1. Louisville
4. Delaware State*

2. Kentucky
3. Ohio State
Tallahassee Regional
1. Florida State (7)
4. Jackson State*

2. South Florida
3. Florida
Los Angeles Regional
1. UCLA
4. Wisconsin-Milwaukee*

2. Oklahoma State
3. Southern Miss*
Eugene Regional
1. Oregon (8)
4. Illinois State*

2. Oklahoma
3. Michigan State
Raleigh Regional
1. NC State
4. Columbia*

2. Mercer*
3. Alabama

Last Five In: San Diego, Ohio State, North Florida, Stanford, West Virginia

First Five Out: Maryland, Austin Peay, William and Mary, Notre Dame, Florida Atlantic

* Denotes an Automatic Bid

Multi-Bid Conferences:

SEC - 9

ACC - 8

Pac-12 - 5

Big East - 4

Sun Belt - 3

Big 12 - 3

Big Ten - 3

Big South - 2

Big West - 2

WCC - 2

Atlantic Sun - 2

C-USA - 2

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  • One thing you'll notice in these projections is an unusual amount of Sun Belt teams. But the SBC has turned into one of the premier mid-major baseball leagues in 2013, and I see three teams representing them as locks in the field, with a fourth just outside the field of 64 and on the bubble.
  • The SEC leads all conferences with nine bids, and each of those teams has the ability to do some damage in its respective regionals. Florida has posted three wins over South Carolina, two victories against Miami (Florida) and Mississippi, and one win over Indiana, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, and Florida State. With the Gators ability to crank out hits in bulk, the Tallahassee Regional would be a very fun one to watch. There is also the case of Alabama heading up to Raleigh as a three seed. The Crimson Tide's resume includes two wins over Southern Miss, and one against the likes of Arkansas, LSU, and Troy. Bama is a dangerous squad and can do some damage in a regional with only two power conference teams.
  • One point of controversy could be my inclusion of Stanford, which brings the Pac-12 up to five bids. This will happen if one, the Cardinal finish the season at 6-1, and two, the committee realizes it would be a huge boost for ratings and ticket sales if they had next month's #1 pick in the MLB Draft in the field. Mark Marquess' club is currently the second-to-last team in the field, so no more room for bad losses like they've suffered in the past couple of weeks against mediocre WCC clubs. A sweep of rival California, blowout of Pacific, and two victories against the Bruins is the only scenario in which I see them making the field.
  • The Conference of Champions also should get two National Seeds, putting them right up there with the rest of the nation's elite conferences. The only scenario in which Oregon State and Oregon don't finish in the top eight is if one of them gets swept in either of their final two series.
  • Work Left: Maryland dropped off the national radar with its recent three game losing streak, but the Terripans are no different at this point than Stanford and West Virginia. The Terps need to sweep a bad Boston College team at home this week before winning at least one game in the ACC Tournament. That will keep them on the bubble heading into Selection Monday.
  • Work Left: William and Mary is a solid club out of the Colonial, and the Tribe could most definitely take the league's automatic bid next week in their conference tournament. But their at-large hopes are still alive, and if it weren't for small bouts of inconsistency throughout the year, they'd be in the field of 64 right now. I think a sweep of Georgia State and three wins in the double-elimination style tourney will be enough to get W&M in as an at-large.
  • Games to Watch This Week:

5/15 - Gonzaga @ Oregon, San Diego @ UC Irvine, North Carolina A&T vs Delaware State

5/16 - Alabama @ Vanderbilt, Mississippi @ LSU

5/17 - Oregon State @ Oregon, UC Irvine @ Cal State Fullerton, Pittsburgh @ Louisville

5/18 - South Carolina @ Mississippi State, Indiana @ Ohio State, Oregon State @ Oregon

5/19 - Oklahoma @ Kansas State, Army vs Holy Cross (2), Stanford @ California

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