In case you have missed it, I have a spread sheet I created using the Sagarin Predictor values and the Pac-12 schedule to create a prediction for the conference at the end of the year. It is dynamic as upsets happen but it does give a good idea of what to expect, and what to watch for.
The games this past weekend changed almost nothing for any team in conference. It pains me to type it but Oregon grabbed the only upset. As a result they moved up a few spots and helped drop WSU.
For OSU, the Cal game Thursday was predicted as a win last week but now is a predicted loss. But that prediction is still by less than a point. This loss is why OSU dropped to 4th in conference predictions this week. It goes without saying, there needs to be an upset Thursday. The Stanford game Saturday is a predicted win. It is one of only three games that Stanford is predicted to lose this year in conference. That is quite the compliment.
In other games, watch for the Arizona loss at UCLA. It must happen to give OSU a shot at 3rd in conference. It is possible AZ could also lose at USC as Sagarin only gives AZ a 1.5 point advantage. An interesting note is that the UW@CU and WSU@CU games are close enough that CU could win either. That would help keep UW and/or WSU off our heals. I know we also would like to see the ducks get swept but if they split this weekend then they help us in our efforts to catch Stanford or Cal as long as OSU takes care of business. The flip side is the RPI argument. Do we really want our best teams in conference losing any unnecessary games?
Predicted Conference Standings
| Conference | Overall | ||||||||
| Rank | Predictor | Team | W | - | L | W | - | L | |
| 21 | 86.42 | California | 17 | - | 1 | 27 | - | 4 | |
| 32 | 84.83 | Stanford | 15 | - | 3 | 25 | - | 5 | |
| 52 | 81.54 | Arizona | 13 | - | 5 | 22 | - | 9 | |
| 45 | 82.13 | Oregon State | 12 | - | 6 | 22 | - | 8 | |
| 53 | 81.48 | Washington | 11 | - | 7 | 20 | - | 10 | |
| 110 | 77.05 | Oregon | 8 | - | 10 | 17 | - | 13 | |
| 89 | 78.72 | Washington State | 8 | - | 10 | 16 | - | 14 | |
| 94 | 78.22 | UCLA | 8 | - | 10 | 16 | - | 15 | |
| 126 | 75.19 | Colorado | 6 | - | 12 | 14 | - | 16 | |
| 114 | 76.17 | Southern California | 6 | - | 12 | 11 | - | 20 | |
| 177 | 71.23 | Arizona State | 2 | - | 16 | 6 | - | 24 | |
| 336 | 56.48 | Utah | 0 | - | 18 | 3 | - | 27 | |
Predicted schedule results
| home team adds | ||||||||
| Visitor | Home | 3.89 | Win=1 | |||||
| California | @ | Oregon State | 86.42 | 86.02 | -0.4 | |||
| Stanford | @ | Oregon State | 84.83 | 86.02 | 1 | 1.19 | ||
| Oregon State | @ | Arizona | 82.13 | 85.43 | -3.3 | |||
| Oregon State | @ | Arizona State | 82.13 | 75.12 | 1 | 7.01 | ||
| UCLA | @ | Oregon State | 78.22 | 86.02 | 1 | 7.8 | ||
| Southern California | @ | Oregon State | 76.17 | 86.02 | 1 | 9.85 | ||
| Oregon State | @ | Oregon | 82.13 | 80.94 | 1 | 1.19 | ||
| Oregon State | @ | Colorado | 82.13 | 79.08 | 1 | 3.05 | ||
| Oregon State | @ | Utah | 82.13 | 60.37 | 1 | 21.76 | ||
| Washington State | @ | Oregon State | 78.72 | 86.02 | 1 | 7.3 | ||
| Washington | @ | Oregon State | 81.48 | 86.02 | 1 | 4.54 | ||
| Oregon State | @ | Stanford | 82.13 | 88.72 | -6.59 | |||
| Oregon State | @ | California | 82.13 | 90.31 | -8.18 | |||
| Oregon | @ | Oregon State | 77.05 | 86.02 | 1 | 8.97 | ||
| Utah | @ | Oregon State | 56.48 | 86.02 | 1 | 29.54 | ||
| Colorado | @ | Oregon State | 75.19 | 86.02 | 1 | 10.83 | ||
Other games this weekend
| Stanford | @ | Oregon | 84.83 | 80.94 | ||
| California | @ | Oregon | 86.42 | 80.94 |
| Arizona | @ | UCLA | 81.54 | 82.11 | ||
| Arizona | @ | Southern California | 81.54 | 80.06 |
| Washington | @ | Colorado | 81.48 | 79.08 | ||
| Washington | @ | Utah | 81.48 | 60.37 |
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