Last week was good for what ailed us in Beaver Nation. The biggest surprise was that WSU beat Cal. Sagarin thought they were 5.5 point dogs. It helps to put some perspective on what the Sagarin point spread can tell us. If the spread is within 6 and the underdog is at home then the game is a toss up. With that in mind I give you the OSU-UO spread. OSU is favored by 0.23 pts. That's right, less than one half of one half of one point. It is the closest spread of any game in the Pac this weekend. Good thing they are saving it for Sunday, Sunday, Sunday. My heart is with OSU but my money is on Oregon. That spread is too close for the home dog to really lose.
The wins last week helped to push the Beavs back to higher in the standings. Sagarin predicts them to finish 4th again but this time they are tied with the Ducks. That still has them meeting Oregon in the second round of the Pac-12 tournament. Somehow, someway, the Beavs will finish 4th. That is kind of hard to believe.
I checked the RPI recently and the Beavs are somewhere around 140 and the Ducks are around 60. Sagarin on the other hand loves the Beavs more and has them around 55 in Predictor and 73 overall while the Ducks hover around 100 in both Sagarin ratings. I have put a lot of time into this Sagarin thing and I hope he turns out to be right.
The standings this week include the predictions that OSU will win at Oregon and at Colorado next week. I already talked about the Oregon spread and the Colorado spread is even closer. Sagarin has OSU as a 0.06 point favorite next week. Sorry, but I expect both of those games to be losses.
Here are the other games this weekend. WSU might lose at ASU, CU should get USC and like I said, I dont feel good about the Duck game. The other games will probably play out as Sagarin suggests. Remember a negative number means the home team is favored and a positive means that the road team is favored.
|Home Team Point Spread|
|Washington State||@||Arizona State||3.68|
Tournament layout if the season plays out as suggested by Sagarin. Again, I doubt it right now.
|73.19||Southern California||12||-3.72||81.46||Oregon State||4|