Sagarin Conference Predictions, 12/27
by HardCorvallis on Dec 27, 2011 9:48 AM PST
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All of the Pac-12 non-conference games are over except for Colorado. They open conference play with Utah on Saturday so they filled up with New Orleans, a D2 school I guess. From here on out I will try to update once a week on, let's say, Wednesday nights.
All I can say now is that Sagarin thinks there will be some tight games played this weekend. He thinks OSU will lose but by less than a point. Folks, these games are VERY winnable.
The standings have changed to reflect future wins at home against Cal and Stanford next weekend. These too are tight and could go any way. That helps to bump the Beavs up to 3rd in the conference.
Sagarin's Pac-12 final conference predictions. This conference is wide open.
| Conference | Overall | ||||||||
| Rank | Predictor | Team | W | - | L | W | - | L | |
| 28 | 85.28 | Stanford | 16 | - | 2 | 26 | - | 4 | |
| 20 | 86.68 | California | 16 | - | 2 | 26 | - | 5 | |
| 43 | 83.09 | Oregon State | 13 | - | 5 | 23 | - | 7 | |
| 63 | 80.95 | Arizona | 13 | - | 5 | 22 | - | 9 | |
| 75 | 79.49 | Washington State | 11 | - | 7 | 19 | - | 11 | |
| 73 | 79.88 | Washington | 11 | - | 7 | 18 | - | 12 | |
| 117 | 75.86 | Oregon | 8 | - | 10 | 17 | - | 13 | |
| 105 | 76.93 | UCLA | 8 | - | 10 | 16 | - | 15 | |
| 161 | 72.88 | Colorado | 4 | - | 14 | 11 | - | 18 | |
| 130 | 74.95 | Southern California | 4 | - | 14 | 9 | - | 22 | |
| 179 | 71.17 | Arizona State | 4 | - | 14 | 8 | - | 22 | |
| 330 | 58.27 | Utah | 0 | - | 18 | 3 | - | 27 | |
OSU's predicted schedule results.
| home team adds | |||||||
| Visitor | Home | 4.04 | Win=1 | ||||
| Oregon State | @ | Washington | 83.09 | 83.92 | |||
| Oregon State | @ | Washington State | 83.09 | 83.53 | |||
| California | @ | Oregon State | 86.68 | 87.13 | 1 | ||
| Stanford | @ | Oregon State | 85.28 | 87.13 | 1 | ||
| Oregon State | @ | Arizona | 83.09 | 84.99 | |||
| Oregon State | @ | Arizona State | 83.09 | 75.21 | 1 | ||
| UCLA | @ | Oregon State | 76.93 | 87.13 | 1 | ||
| Southern California | @ | Oregon State | 74.95 | 87.13 | 1 | ||
| Oregon State | @ | Oregon | 83.09 | 79.9 | 1 | ||
| Oregon State | @ | Colorado | 83.09 | 76.92 | 1 | ||
| Oregon State | @ | Utah | 83.09 | 62.31 | 1 | ||
| Washington State | @ | Oregon State | 79.49 | 87.13 | 1 | ||
| Washington | @ | Oregon State | 79.88 | 87.13 | 1 | ||
| Oregon State | @ | Stanford | 83.09 | 89.32 | |||
| Oregon State | @ | California | 83.09 | 90.72 | |||
| Oregon | @ | Oregon State | 75.86 | 87.13 | 1 | ||
| Utah | @ | Oregon State | 58.27 | 87.13 | 1 | ||
| Colorado | @ | Oregon State | 72.88 | 87.13 | 1 | ||
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or the Building the Dam staff. FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable Oregon State fans.
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I'd take this
But I’m not sure, with the Pac-12 being generally bad, and the Beavers’ abysmal non-conference SoS, that this would get them in the Big Dance.
13-5 should definitely get us in
As long as those losses aren’t to the Oregon’s, Colorado’s, and Utah’s.
Follow me on Twitter! https://twitter.com/#!/ConnorPelton128
It is a bitter sweet opportunity to finish well in conference.
An NIT berth is probably the appropriate thing to get. Then they can have a chance for more success. Going into the NCAA tourney as a 12 seed or worse probably doesn’t offer as many learning opportunities as the NIT. I am still of the belief that all of this is about next year.
I've long maintained that if you don't have a reasonable chance
to win a first round NCAA game, and in some cases even get to the second weekend, you are better off in the NIT if you are building/rebuilding a program, with a lot of players who will be returning. (This is the definition of this year’s Oregon St. team.)
A couple of wins (or more) against still decent competition, and maybe a home game or two, can do more to build up a team than getting blown out by 20+ in the first round.
And this year, the Pac’s RPI is going to be poor enough to potentially drag down any at large team’s seeding below some mid-major aq teams, making that first round game potentially very tough to win.
Andy Wooldridge, andy_wooldridge@yahoo.com
BuildingTheDam.Com
Go Beavs!
Washington still has a non-conference game
against Seattle.
Andy Wooldridge, andy_wooldridge@yahoo.com
BuildingTheDam.Com
Go Beavs!
Maybe I should have said all the pre-conference games are over.
Without looking, I think UCLA has another non-con game too.
by HardCorvallis on Dec 30, 2011 5:15 PM PST up reply actions
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Beavers Football Schedule
| Sacramento St. | Sat 09/03 | L 28 - 29 |
@
Wisconsin
|
Sat 09/10 | L 0 - 35 |
|
UCLA
|
Sat 09/24 | L 19 - 27 |
|
@
Arizona St.
|
Sat 10/01 | L 20 - 35 |
|
Arizona
|
Sat 10/08 | W 37 - 27 |
|
BYU
|
Sat 10/15 | L 28 - 38 |
|
@
Washington St.
|
Sat 10/22 | W 44 - 21 |
|
@
Utah
|
Sat 10/29 | L 8 - 27 |
|
Stanford
|
Sat 11/05 | L 13 - 38 |
|
@
California
|
Sat 11/12 | L 6 - 23 |
|
Washington
|
Sat 11/19 | W 38 - 21 |
|
@
Oregon
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Sat 11/26 | L 21 - 49 |
