FanPost

Sagarin conference predictions, 12/22

The non-conference schedule is over for OSU and some things have changed since the last post. California pulled into a tie with Stanford, the Washington schools flip flopped, UCLA is getting better, and Utah upset Portland but still looks to tie our old record for conference futility.

But that is not why I am excited to post this today. The big news is how winnable the next 5 games have become.

According to the Sagarin Predictor ratings, and factoring in home court advantage, OSU is no worse than a 2 point underdog to any of the first 5 teams they play in conference (UW, WSU, Cal, Stan, UA). To me that is a coin flip. While OSU is on the short side of all of those predictions, the closeness of the spread leads me to believe that OSU can win the two home games against Cal and Stan.

There is a lot of talk of course about how weak the OSU schedule has been. Sagarin claims the OSU schedule to date is 331 out of 345. But statistics can help change that perspective too. Sagarin has three rating systems. One is called Predictor and it is based on margin of victory. This is the one I use in my spreadsheet to get these predictions for the conference. Another one he has is called Elo-Chess and it is purely based on win-loss. The third is what he uses and it is a combination of the two. But if you subtract the first two you get a new number I call Pre-Elo which gives an idea of if the team is doing what it should be doing. Below is a look at the conference Pre-Elo numbers. You will see that OSU is the most over-achieving team in the conference. This may be the number that shows OSU could win the first 5 games of conference, and then some.

Rank
Team Elo-Chess Predictor Pre-Elo
49
Oregon State 76.07 82.58 6.51
108
UCLA 71.24 76.61 5.37
73
Washington 75.11 79.74 4.63
71
Washington State 75.37 79.89 4.52
17
California 84.44 87.19 2.75
125
Southern California 73.15 75.39 2.24
182
Arizona State 69.9 71.09 1.19
19
Stanford 85.63 86.8 1.17
65
Arizona 80.55 80.53 -0.02
154
Colorado 76.34 73.05 -3.29
124
Oregon 78.75 75.42 -3.33
328
Utah 64.36 59.3 -5.06

Well without further ado, here is the Sagarin Conference predictions and the OSU schedule predictions.





Conference Overall
Rank Predictor
Team W - L W - L
19 86.8
Stanford 17 - 1 28 - 2
17 87.19
California 17 - 1 27 - 4
65 80.53
Arizona 13 - 5 22 - 9
71 79.89
Washington State 12 - 6 20 - 10
73 79.74
Washington 12 - 6 19 - 11
49 82.58
Oregon State 11 - 7 21 - 9
108 76.61
UCLA 8 - 10 16 - 15
124 75.42
Oregon 6 - 12 15 - 15
125 75.39
Southern California 5 - 13 10 - 21
154 73.05
Colorado 4 - 14 11 - 18
182 71.09
Arizona State 3 - 15 7 - 23
328 59.3
Utah 0 - 18 3 - 27




home team adds

Visitor
Home

4.12
Win=1








Oregon State @ Washington 82.58
83.86

Oregon State @ Washington State 82.58
84.01

California @ Oregon State 87.19
86.7

Stanford @ Oregon State 86.8
86.7

Oregon State @ Arizona 82.58
84.65

Oregon State @ Arizona State 82.58
75.21
1
UCLA @ Oregon State 76.61
86.7
1
Southern California @ Oregon State 75.39
86.7
1
Oregon State @ Oregon 82.58
79.54
1
Oregon State @ Colorado 82.58
77.17
1
Oregon State @ Utah 82.58
63.42
1
Washington State @ Oregon State 79.89
86.7
1
Washington @ Oregon State 79.74
86.7
1
Oregon State @ Stanford 82.58
90.92

Oregon State @ California 82.58
91.31

Oregon @ Oregon State 75.42
86.7
1
Utah @ Oregon State 59.3
86.7
1
Colorado @ Oregon State 73.05
86.7
1

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or the Building the Dam staff. FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable Oregon State fans.

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