Sagarin conference predictions, 12/22
by HardCorvallis on Dec 22, 2011 9:11 AM PST
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PrintThe non-conference schedule is over for OSU and some things have changed since the last post. California pulled into a tie with Stanford, the Washington schools flip flopped, UCLA is getting better, and Utah upset Portland but still looks to tie our old record for conference futility.
But that is not why I am excited to post this today. The big news is how winnable the next 5 games have become.
According to the Sagarin Predictor ratings, and factoring in home court advantage, OSU is no worse than a 2 point underdog to any of the first 5 teams they play in conference (UW, WSU, Cal, Stan, UA). To me that is a coin flip. While OSU is on the short side of all of those predictions, the closeness of the spread leads me to believe that OSU can win the two home games against Cal and Stan.
There is a lot of talk of course about how weak the OSU schedule has been. Sagarin claims the OSU schedule to date is 331 out of 345. But statistics can help change that perspective too. Sagarin has three rating systems. One is called Predictor and it is based on margin of victory. This is the one I use in my spreadsheet to get these predictions for the conference. Another one he has is called Elo-Chess and it is purely based on win-loss. The third is what he uses and it is a combination of the two. But if you subtract the first two you get a new number I call Pre-Elo which gives an idea of if the team is doing what it should be doing. Below is a look at the conference Pre-Elo numbers. You will see that OSU is the most over-achieving team in the conference. This may be the number that shows OSU could win the first 5 games of conference, and then some.
| Rank | Team | Elo-Chess | Predictor | Pre-Elo | |
| 49 | Oregon State | 76.07 | 82.58 | 6.51 | |
| 108 | UCLA | 71.24 | 76.61 | 5.37 | |
| 73 | Washington | 75.11 | 79.74 | 4.63 | |
| 71 | Washington State | 75.37 | 79.89 | 4.52 | |
| 17 | California | 84.44 | 87.19 | 2.75 | |
| 125 | Southern California | 73.15 | 75.39 | 2.24 | |
| 182 | Arizona State | 69.9 | 71.09 | 1.19 | |
| 19 | Stanford | 85.63 | 86.8 | 1.17 | |
| 65 | Arizona | 80.55 | 80.53 | -0.02 | |
| 154 | Colorado | 76.34 | 73.05 | -3.29 | |
| 124 | Oregon | 78.75 | 75.42 | -3.33 | |
| 328 | Utah | 64.36 | 59.3 | -5.06 |
Well without further ado, here is the Sagarin Conference predictions and the OSU schedule predictions.
| Conference | Overall | ||||||||
| Rank | Predictor | Team | W | - | L | W | - | L | |
| 19 | 86.8 | Stanford | 17 | - | 1 | 28 | - | 2 | |
| 17 | 87.19 | California | 17 | - | 1 | 27 | - | 4 | |
| 65 | 80.53 | Arizona | 13 | - | 5 | 22 | - | 9 | |
| 71 | 79.89 | Washington State | 12 | - | 6 | 20 | - | 10 | |
| 73 | 79.74 | Washington | 12 | - | 6 | 19 | - | 11 | |
| 49 | 82.58 | Oregon State | 11 | - | 7 | 21 | - | 9 | |
| 108 | 76.61 | UCLA | 8 | - | 10 | 16 | - | 15 | |
| 124 | 75.42 | Oregon | 6 | - | 12 | 15 | - | 15 | |
| 125 | 75.39 | Southern California | 5 | - | 13 | 10 | - | 21 | |
| 154 | 73.05 | Colorado | 4 | - | 14 | 11 | - | 18 | |
| 182 | 71.09 | Arizona State | 3 | - | 15 | 7 | - | 23 | |
| 328 | 59.3 | Utah | 0 | - | 18 | 3 | - | 27 | |
| home team adds | |||||||
| Visitor | Home | 4.12 | Win=1 | ||||
| Oregon State | @ | Washington | 82.58 | 83.86 | |||
| Oregon State | @ | Washington State | 82.58 | 84.01 | |||
| California | @ | Oregon State | 87.19 | 86.7 | |||
| Stanford | @ | Oregon State | 86.8 | 86.7 | |||
| Oregon State | @ | Arizona | 82.58 | 84.65 | |||
| Oregon State | @ | Arizona State | 82.58 | 75.21 | 1 | ||
| UCLA | @ | Oregon State | 76.61 | 86.7 | 1 | ||
| Southern California | @ | Oregon State | 75.39 | 86.7 | 1 | ||
| Oregon State | @ | Oregon | 82.58 | 79.54 | 1 | ||
| Oregon State | @ | Colorado | 82.58 | 77.17 | 1 | ||
| Oregon State | @ | Utah | 82.58 | 63.42 | 1 | ||
| Washington State | @ | Oregon State | 79.89 | 86.7 | 1 | ||
| Washington | @ | Oregon State | 79.74 | 86.7 | 1 | ||
| Oregon State | @ | Stanford | 82.58 | 90.92 | |||
| Oregon State | @ | California | 82.58 | 91.31 | |||
| Oregon | @ | Oregon State | 75.42 | 86.7 | 1 | ||
| Utah | @ | Oregon State | 59.3 | 86.7 | 1 | ||
| Colorado | @ | Oregon State | 73.05 | 86.7 | 1 | ||
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or the Building the Dam staff. FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable Oregon State fans.
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Oregon State seems to be middle of the pack in ratings, but they've looked as good as anyone so far to me
It always makes me wonder how much Oregon State’s weak schedule is skewing things. True, they haven’t played many good teams, but they’ve beaten most of them pretty convincingly. Plus, their win against Texas could be argued as the conference’s best win so far. Of course, out of the top half of the conference, their loss to Idaho could be argued as the worst loss.
I don’t know. I guess I’m just happy that they we can legitimately talk about how they have a chance to do extremely well in conference play.
I don't like the way the schedule lays out,
with the Northwest schools meeting on the first weekend, with no one looking, being lost in the bowl blitz, and then the Oregon schools hosting the 2 best teams in the conference in the preseason from the Bay area before winter term starts, and Gill is fully reinforced, home court advantage noise and energy wise.
This is a terrible waste of opportunity to market some of the most attractive games of the season, something Larry Scott and co. usually haven’t missed on.
However, we will have a good idea about Oregon St., and to a degree, all the teams in the football northern division, are going to shake out by Jan. 8, since the Bay schools open with the LA schools (another major scheduling gaff).
Andy Wooldridge, andy_wooldridge@yahoo.com
BuildingTheDam.Com
Go Beavs!
Good point, I never looked at it like that
If OSU can win both games in Washington though, or maybe even one of two, there could be a pretty good turn-out for Cal and Stanford. I went to the Portland St game and was shocked at how many folks were there. I guess it was a Sunday, but still, I would hope that even more would come for a couple of important conference games.
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