I am a bit of a spreadsheet junkie. I created a spreadsheet that uses Pac-12 teams schedule and the Sagarin Predictor ratings for every team and their opponents to get this seasons predicted final standings. Of course you can't predict injuries, suspensions, death of friends, and other bad mojo but it does give you an idea of what teams are doing right now. I like this spreadsheet because it helps me to understand who is good and who is bad and by how much.
| Conference | Overall | |||||||||
| Rank | Predictor | Team | W | - | L | W | - | L | ||
| 9 | 89.48 | Stanford | 18 | - | 0 | 29 | - | 1 | ||
| 26 | 85.49 | California | 15 | - | 3 | 25 | - | 6 | ||
| 59 | 81.23 | Arizona | 14 | - | 4 | 23 | - | 8 | ||
| 41 | 83.22 | Washington | 14 | - | 4 | 22 | - | 8 | ||
| 65 | 80.89 | Washington State | 12 | - | 6 | 19 | - | 10 | ||
| 78 | 79.66 | Oregon State | 10 | - | 8 | 20 | - | 10 | ||
| 101 | 77.36 | Oregon | 9 | - | 9 | 18 | - | 12 | ||
| 155 | 72.57 | Arizona State | 5 | - | 13 | 11 | - | 19 | ||
| 137 | 73.91 | Southern California | 5 | - | 13 | 11 | - | 20 | ||
| 140 | 73.49 | Colorado | 3 | - | 15 | 10 | - | 19 | ||
| 214 | 69.78 | UCLA | 3 | - | 15 | 8 | - | 23 | ||
| 331 | 59.24 | Utah | 0 | - | 18 | 1 | - | 29 | ||
Below is the OS schedule as Sagarin predicts it. Each team has a calculated Predictor value and then adds a standardized home court advantage number to the home teams predicted value. Wow, that was a mouthful. Each day this number changes as games are played but pretty much stays around 4.0. The result is not so much a predicted score but rather a predicted difference in the final score. For example tonight's game OS might be Illinois-Chicago by about 17 points. I added a win=1 column to help see the result better. Notice we have a four game losing streak predicted to start the Pac-12. I hope not.
| home team adds | |||||||
| Visitor | Home | 3.84 | Win=1 | ||||
| Illinois-Chicago | @ | Oregon State | 66.18 | 83.5 | 1 | ||
| Howard | @ | Oregon State | 62.54 | 83.5 | 1 | ||
| Portland State | @ | Oregon State | 73.77 | 83.5 | 1 | ||
| Oregon State | @ | Chicago State | 79.66 | 57.68 | 1 | ||
| Oregon State | @ | Washington | 79.66 | 87.06 | |||
| Oregon State | @ | Washington State | 79.66 | 84.73 | |||
| California | @ | Oregon State | 85.49 | 83.5 | |||
| Stanford | @ | Oregon State | 89.48 | 83.5 | |||
| Oregon State | @ | Arizona | 79.66 | 85.07 | |||
| Oregon State | @ | Arizona State | 79.66 | 76.41 | 1 | ||
| UCLA | @ | Oregon State | 69.78 | 83.5 | 1 | ||
| Southern California | @ | Oregon State | 73.91 | 83.5 | 1 | ||
| Oregon State | @ | Oregon | 79.66 | 81.2 | |||
| Oregon State | @ | Colorado | 79.66 | 77.33 | 1 | ||
| Oregon State | @ | Utah | 79.66 | 63.08 | 1 | ||
| Washington State | @ | Oregon State | 80.89 | 83.5 | 1 | ||
| Washington | @ | Oregon State | 83.22 | 83.5 | 1 | ||
| Oregon State | @ | Stanford | 79.66 | 93.32 | |||
| Oregon State | @ | California | 79.66 | 89.33 | |||
| Oregon | @ | Oregon State | 77.36 | 83.5 | 1 | ||
| Utah | @ | Oregon State | 59.24 | 83.5 | 1 | ||
| Colorado | @ | Oregon State | 73.49 | 83.5 | 1 | ||
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