FanPost

Sagarin Helps to predict the basketball season

I am a bit of a spreadsheet junkie. I created a spreadsheet that uses Pac-12 teams schedule and the Sagarin Predictor ratings for every team and their opponents to get this seasons predicted final standings. Of course you can't predict injuries, suspensions, death of friends, and other bad mojo but it does give you an idea of what teams are doing right now. I like this spreadsheet because it helps me to understand who is good and who is bad and by how much.






Conference Overall
Rank Predictor
Team
W - L W - L
9 89.48
Stanford
18 - 0 29 - 1
26 85.49
California
15 - 3 25 - 6
59 81.23
Arizona
14 - 4 23 - 8
41 83.22
Washington
14 - 4 22 - 8
65 80.89
Washington State
12 - 6 19 - 10
78 79.66
Oregon State
10 - 8 20 - 10
101 77.36
Oregon
9 - 9 18 - 12
155 72.57
Arizona State
5 - 13 11 - 19
137 73.91
Southern California
5 - 13 11 - 20
140 73.49
Colorado
3 - 15 10 - 19
214 69.78
UCLA
3 - 15 8 - 23
331 59.24
Utah
0 - 18 1 - 29

Below is the OS schedule as Sagarin predicts it. Each team has a calculated Predictor value and then adds a standardized home court advantage number to the home teams predicted value. Wow, that was a mouthful. Each day this number changes as games are played but pretty much stays around 4.0. The result is not so much a predicted score but rather a predicted difference in the final score. For example tonight's game OS might be Illinois-Chicago by about 17 points. I added a win=1 column to help see the result better. Notice we have a four game losing streak predicted to start the Pac-12. I hope not.




home team adds

Visitor
Home

3.84
Win=1








Illinois-Chicago @ Oregon State 66.18
83.5
1
Howard @ Oregon State 62.54
83.5
1
Portland State @ Oregon State 73.77
83.5
1
Oregon State @ Chicago State 79.66
57.68
1
Oregon State @ Washington 79.66
87.06

Oregon State @ Washington State 79.66
84.73

California @ Oregon State 85.49
83.5

Stanford @ Oregon State 89.48
83.5

Oregon State @ Arizona 79.66
85.07

Oregon State @ Arizona State 79.66
76.41
1
UCLA @ Oregon State 69.78
83.5
1
Southern California @ Oregon State 73.91
83.5
1
Oregon State @ Oregon 79.66
81.2

Oregon State @ Colorado 79.66
77.33
1
Oregon State @ Utah 79.66
63.08
1
Washington State @ Oregon State 80.89
83.5
1
Washington @ Oregon State 83.22
83.5
1
Oregon State @ Stanford 79.66
93.32

Oregon State @ California 79.66
89.33

Oregon @ Oregon State 77.36
83.5
1
Utah @ Oregon State 59.24
83.5
1
Colorado @ Oregon State 73.49
83.5
1

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or the Building the Dam staff. FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable Oregon State fans.

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