Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: NFL Owners Vote to Change Trade Deadline

Sagarin Helps to predict the basketball season

I am a bit of a spreadsheet junkie. I created a spreadsheet that uses Pac-12 teams schedule and the Sagarin Predictor ratings for every team and their opponents to get this seasons predicted final standings. Of course you can't predict injuries, suspensions, death of friends, and other bad mojo but it does give you an idea of what teams are doing right now. I like this spreadsheet because it helps me to understand who is good and who is bad and by how much.

Star-divide






Conference Overall
Rank Predictor
Team
W - L W - L
9 89.48
Stanford
18 - 0 29 - 1
26 85.49
California
15 - 3 25 - 6
59 81.23
Arizona
14 - 4 23 - 8
41 83.22
Washington
14 - 4 22 - 8
65 80.89
Washington State
12 - 6 19 - 10
78 79.66
Oregon State
10 - 8 20 - 10
101 77.36
Oregon
9 - 9 18 - 12
155 72.57
Arizona State
5 - 13 11 - 19
137 73.91
Southern California
5 - 13 11 - 20
140 73.49
Colorado
3 - 15 10 - 19
214 69.78
UCLA
3 - 15 8 - 23
331 59.24
Utah
0 - 18 1 - 29

Below is the OS schedule as Sagarin predicts it. Each team has a calculated Predictor value and then adds a standardized home court advantage number to the home teams predicted value. Wow, that was a mouthful. Each day this number changes as games are played but pretty much stays around 4.0. The result is not so much a predicted score but rather a predicted difference in the final score. For example tonight's game OS might be Illinois-Chicago by about 17 points. I added a win=1 column to help see the result better. Notice we have a four game losing streak predicted to start the Pac-12. I hope not.




home team adds

Visitor
Home

3.84
Win=1








Illinois-Chicago @ Oregon State 66.18
83.5
1
Howard @ Oregon State 62.54
83.5
1
Portland State @ Oregon State 73.77
83.5
1
Oregon State @ Chicago State 79.66
57.68
1
Oregon State @ Washington 79.66
87.06

Oregon State @ Washington State 79.66
84.73

California @ Oregon State 85.49
83.5

Stanford @ Oregon State 89.48
83.5

Oregon State @ Arizona 79.66
85.07

Oregon State @ Arizona State 79.66
76.41
1
UCLA @ Oregon State 69.78
83.5
1
Southern California @ Oregon State 73.91
83.5
1
Oregon State @ Oregon 79.66
81.2

Oregon State @ Colorado 79.66
77.33
1
Oregon State @ Utah 79.66
63.08
1
Washington State @ Oregon State 80.89
83.5
1
Washington @ Oregon State 83.22
83.5
1
Oregon State @ Stanford 79.66
93.32

Oregon State @ California 79.66
89.33

Oregon @ Oregon State 77.36
83.5
1
Utah @ Oregon State 59.24
83.5
1
Colorado @ Oregon State 73.49
83.5
1

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or the Building the Dam staff. FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable Oregon State fans.

Comment 1 comment  |  0 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

If that comes true

Looks like an NIT season to me.

by Sahr on Dec 14, 2011 8:33 AM PST reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to Building the Dam, an unofficial Oregon State Beavers website. We are a diverse online community who share in a common bond, a passion for the Oregon State Beavers. Make yourself at home by reading, posting and participating in all that we do.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Small
Oregon State Basketball Recruiting Chart
Small
A Spring Game That Never Was

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

OSU Football Schedules

2011

Sep. 3 - Sacramento St. - 1 PM
Sep. 10 at Wisconsin - 9 AM PDT
Sep. 17 - BYE
Sep. 24 - UCLA - 12:30 PM
Oct. 1 - at Arizona St. - 7:30 PM
Oct. 8 - Arizona - 12:30 PM
Oct. 15 - BYU - 1 PM
Oct. 22 - at Washington St. - 7:30 PM
(at Century Link Field, Seattle)
Oct. 29 - at Utah - 4 PM PDT
Nov. 5 - Stanford (Homecoming) - 12:30 PM
Nov. 12 - at California - 3:30 PM
(at AT&T Park, San Francisco)
Nov. 19 - Washington (Dad's day) - 12:30 PM
Nov. 26 - at Oregon - 12:30 PM

2012

Sep. 1 - Nicholls St.
Sep. 8 - Wisconsin
Sep. 15 - BYE
Sep. 22 - at UCLA
Sep. 29 - at Arizona
Oct. 6 - Washington St.
Oct. 13 - at BYU
Oct. 20 - Utah (Homecoming)
Oct. 27 - at Washington
(at Century Link Field, Seattle)
Nov. 3 - Arizona St.
Nov. 10 - at Stanford
Nov. 17 - California
Nov. 24 - Oregon

2013

Aug. 31 - Eastern Washington
Sep. 7 - Hawaii
Sep. 21 - at San Diego State

2014

Aug. 30 - Portland State
Sep. 6 - at Hawaii
Sep. 20 - San Diego State

2015

Sep. 5 - Weber State

2016

Sep. 24 - Boise State

2017

Sep. 9 - at Minnesota
Sep. 16 - Nevada

2018

Sep. 8 - Minnesota
Sep. 15 - at Nevada

Building the Dam on Twitter


Manager

Bigpanda_small AndyPanda

Editor

Cunningham_slamming_02_medium_small rvm

Authors

Awesomeness_small Figgi4life

Osu_small BeaverBeliever12