Oregon State Basketball: Some thoughts and questions going into the Civil War game
by rvm on Jan 21, 2011 10:31 AM PST
in Oregon State Men's Basketball
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PrintWow feels like forever since we have had a basketball game. One thing I have always liked about basketball and baseball over football is usually less wait!
Going into the first Civil War game I wanted to pose some questions and thoughts about the Beavs 2010-2011 basketball team. I hope that we can use this a "preview" discussion area as we move into Saturday's game.
I really don't have a formal preview in place here and did throw around the idea for a poll, but thought it would be nice to have more of a discussion around the team who is nearing the half way point of conference play. My questions/thoughts after the break.
Questions:
1. Has this OSU basketball team improved?
So far here is the breakdown of the Beavs overall record:
| Overall | Home | Away | |
| All Games: |
(8-9) | (7-4) | (1-5) |
| Conference: | (3-3) | (3-1) | (0-2) |
| Non-Conference: | (5-6) | (4-3) | (1-3) |
From this we have a team that seems to be on this fence of being a winning or losing team (record wise) overall. Indeed I think that the team has shown us the good (AZ series), the bad (the WA series), and the oh so-so (SoCal series). But what is this team going to do? To me it seems that the road games are going to end up making the difference and showing us the true side of this young team.
2. Is Omari Johnson the senior to step it up this season?
Omari had a wonderful game against SC and showed everything we need from a senior, quiet leadership driving the ball to the hoop and making key rebounds. But it hasn't always been this way with Omari, so does he have the motivation to keep this solid play going? What about the other seniors? Will Lathen Wallace or Calvin Haynes find any magic before the end of their OSU careers?
3. Inside offense? Defense?
Will we ever get any consistent in-the-paint play? So far I have not seen much on either side of the ball. But at times both Angus Brandt and Joe Burton have seemed poised to step it up on both sides of the ball. There seems to be some potential there, but nothing consistent and have to be honest this has been a hard area for me to gauge. What about Devon Collier? For he also looks to be yet another excellent young player, but hasn't been able to put together a really consistent game yet.
4. Jared Cunningham?
Is he just looking like the four star recruit we all were excited about or what? For me what I think is getting scary is that Jared is now becoming a long ball threat from behind the arc. I am very excited to watch his game continue to improve and I think a big question about Jared is when will he have that huge 30+ point game?
5. Roberto Nelson?
I know all of us have A LOT of expectations for this other four star recruit and he has shown signs of being just that player. But can we realistically expect him to breakout as a leader and star along with Jared Cunningham this season? I think for me that my head says no we need to be patient and let him get a good season of experience under his belt, but my heart keeps yelling that he is going to have a huge game very soon.
6. Post-season?
So in conclusion, and going back to question one, is this team good enough to get to the post-season (and hence yes a winning record)? I personally think the NIT is still a possibility, but I still could see it going the other way too and missing out on the post-season. I think a really big and interesting question is there enough leadership and chemistry with this team to have the WHOLE team breakout and make a serious run at a top three/four finish in the Pac?
So those are my thoughts overall and mainly I have a lot of questions!
So please chime in and as always GO BEAVS!
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So far, the Beavs look like good prospects for the CBI
1. Hard to answer your question as to whether the team has “improved” when your stats provide no basis for comparison over time (e.g., 2011 vs 2010, or recent games 2011 vs earlier games), and I confess to being too lazy to do my own research. My sense is that the team is about as good as last year’s and that it is showing signs of improvement as this season progresses.
2. If the seniors can and will “step it up,” the Beavs could take more of those close games the team finds itself playing so often.
3. No, we will never get “consistent in-the-paint play” from this year’s team.
4. Yes, Jared Cunningham is “looking like the four star recruit we all were excited about.” He’s certainly capable of a 30-pt game, but I’ll be satisfied with several more 24-pt games.
5. It appears that Roberto Nelson is not quite ready for prime time. He’s contributing while gaining the experience and confidence he’ll need to take a bigger role next season.
6. Post-season? Please. This team hasn’t shown itself to be NIT material, much less NCAA. CBI here we come.
1 = Oh, meant from non-conference play this season. Are they actually now a better team now as opposed to say early to mid-December with the conference games played so far? Sorry about that! Although if compared to last season I think this team is better.
6 = They have beat ASU, UA, and USC, so why not step it up another notch and make a run for the NIT? Personally I really don’t see the CBI being an option this season. I personally think it is all or nothing in terms of the post-season (well all = NIT as a more mainstream tournament). I also think you have answered #1 here if you really think this team is not good enough to make the NIT then you don’t think they have improved at all at this stage of the season from mid-Dec.
So you really think this team has shown it can’t possibly play with everyone but UW in the Pac this year? If so I would disagree, but also as noted here and previously I have no illusions that this team could also play the other way (say like against WSU) and end up in a “building season” with no post-season at all (even CBI).
Will they step it up a notch? Who knows, but I really think with the young talent and the seniors who are going out this team needs to think NIT and not settle for less. Again though that is just how I see the potential, especially in the wins this season, and if you called me on it I would say chances are about 35 or 30 to 65 or 70 they can accomplish this. I never even mentioned the NCAA by the way, which I don’t see happening even if they ended third in the conference which I see as the absolute best they could possibly finish (as in pretty much they click into another gear and become a totally different team overnight, and meaning #2, #3, and #5 actually all happen at once).
-RVM
I agree about the CBI
It’s way different than my opinion on a bowl game. The CBI was great the first year, fun last year, but now it would just be boring.
Go Beavers!
So what are your other thoughts?
Where do you think this season is headed?
Improvements? More of the same? Worse?
-RVM
I think the season is headed for another CBI bid
Even though the fans won’t like it, the athletic department will love the exposure. Once we are in the CBI I think we either lose in the Championship or win it all.
This team is talented enough to play in the NIT, but we just played too badly in non-conference play. We will most likely have to finish fourth in the Pac-10 to have an outside shot at it. That is definitely possible, but we can’t give away any more games like we did last Thursday against the Bruins.
I think the team has improved since last season. They are definitely more talented, athletic, and moe fun to watch. I can’t wait to see them live for the first time tomorrow.
Go Beavers!
Yep pretty much my thoughts I guess
And like you I’m not too excited about a CBI appearance, but if they got to the championship again that would mean some more games to watch them play so I guess I wouldn’t complain too much.
-RVM
Some predictions...
I think the Beavs will beat Oregon at home and then lose to them later in Eugene. They’ll probably split the two games in the Bay area, then lose both games at home to the Washington teams and both away in LA. Another split at home to the Bay area teams and a split in Arizona would leave them, let’s see, four games under .500 in the conference. Even allowing for some heroics by Cunningham and others that pull out another game or two, I don’t think OSU will even make it to .500 in the Pac-10 or overall. With a losing record, the best the team could hope for would be a charity bid to the CBI.
by fanoverboard on Jan 21, 2011 10:33 PM PST up reply actions
Really?
Maybe I’m a little optimistic, but I could esdily see us sweeping Oregon, splitting the Washington schools, splitting the Bay Area both times, and splitting the Arizona schools. The thing about this team is that they haven’t reached their potential yet, and when they do, they could be scary good.
Go Beavers!
Wouldn't that still leave them under .500?
Your optimism only gives them a couple more wins than my pessimism.
by fanoverboard on Jan 21, 2011 11:17 PM PST up reply actions
Not so "bold" predictions there fanoverboard :)
I can go here overall and your predictions are realistically postulated, but I still think I side with more of Connor’s optimism right now.
Maybe it is going too much with my heart overall, but the team is in position right now to go either way and has shown they can both lose and win games. As a fan why not see a bit of a bright spot for the team to even get better? It isn’t like they are sitting at 1 and 5 or 0 and 6 in the conference with no hope or glimmers of possible success. They are right in the mix technically.
Again does this translate to a NIT invite and a 3/4 Pac finish? No, but I really do think it is there for the taking if they can step it up a notch this season.
-RVM
I just cannot get a read because of the consistent inconsistency!!!
Really, Jared Cunningham is the one player who has shown measurable improvement from last year everyone else is too damn unpredictable to know what is going to happen on any given night. I thought they had turned the corner in the Arizona series, but then regressed again. Roberto Nelson is a nice player, but he looks a little slow out there still. Is that because Cunningham is so fast? Definitely, not the one and done type talent I was semi-hoping for, but I think he will be a force before his career is over. Whether you want the CBI or not, CR will take it in a heartbeat. I would love to see a couple of road upsets and finish 10-8 go 1-1 in the P-10 tourney to finish 16-15 with an NIT bid. Is that unrealistic? I think that would be measurable improvement.
Roberto Nelson is a nice player, but he looks a little slow out there still. Is that because Cunningham is so fast?
This made me smile a bit. I remember at times last year we all were saying that Jared was too slow, especially in terms of his first step and getting a ton of charging calls. I think there is a difference here of course, but here is how I see it. Roberto is like Jared last year in that the speed of the game overall is different than he is used to, but Jared forced the issue a lot more and Roberto just seems more patient overall. He seems to play the game as a player who likes to lull the other team into overlooking his skill and is much more an outside shooter type than Jared. Jared obviously loves to drive to the basket and take it to the rim.
I also think this applies to both sides of the ball, Jared last season took a lot of fouls getting out of position and now he’s got the feel and can use his speed to his advantage. Roberto does get beat badly on the defensive side of things but again I wonder if he is physically quicker than he looks but just is not making the mental decisions fast enough.
But yes Jared is a quicker player than Roberto overall, both physically and mentally, but I have to wonder if Roberto will come around like Jared sooner or later (hopefully sooner).
Just my unscientifically based thoughts, take them as you want!
-RVM
If Nelson can make the same second year leap that Cunningham was able to do then things are going to look very bright for the future. It would also convince me that Coach Rob can consistently develop players. I think we have to admit that his record (for whatever reasons) with improving the Jay John guys has been a mixed bag. I think I can make a stronger case for some of those players regressing or stagnating under CR than getting better under the two or three years of his leadership.
I think I can make a stronger case for some of those players regressing or stagnating under CR than getting better under the two or three years of his leadership.
I agree with staying about the same, but disagree about getting worse under Robinson. I think maybe a case could be made for Haynes but even he did less than nothing to win games under Jay. Maybe there is less emphasis on the Jay players now with the younger guns out there and so that means less scoring and game time, but these seniors are doing more overall as a team than they ever did under Jay. I think we should take that into account when judging the “mixed bag.”
As much as I have been “critical” of Robinson at times these last two seasons I also do really think it is a two-way street and if the seniors don’t want to mentally engage in the team under Robinson there has to be a point where that becomes their issue.
Also as kriskrosed mentioned below there is the aspect of a different system taking hold as the program changes over.
-RVM
Inconsistency is what keeps me from answering the six questions.
The team is young and it shows. Not only are they young, but Robinson obviously put in a new system this year. Everyone’s having to adapt, even the upper-classmen. They are definitely playing better in conference than the pre-season, and I have hope that the combination of youth and adjusting to a new system leaves them plenty of room to continue to improve the rest of the season.
Cunningham will have to learn to deal with being the other team’s defensive focus. It’d be great if Nelson developed as an outside threat. The defense must improve. Honestly, I think this team still rides on Calvin’s performance. He’s not the focus anymore, but he’s the difference between good games and bad. If Calvin gets hot at the right times, I could see a 5-4 :: 6-3 conf. split. That’s very optimistic, but I wouldn’t be too surprised. The way the team is right now, though, I’m expecting a .500 finish.
As for the postseason, given a choice between the CBI and nothing, I’d take the CBI quicker than Cunningham’s cross-over. More games = more excuses to cheer. Gimme more!
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