FanPost

A Look At Our Chances Going Into Selection Monday

 

Well, we have done all we can do. The Beavers finished up the Regular Season with a Series Win over the Arizona Wildcats. Our Season is over, the Conference Tournaments are over, and now we wait until 9:30 AM tomorrow morning. In this post you will find the results of the Conference Tournaments around the nation, and a look at our final odds to make the Field of 64.

Read on after the break

Tournament                  Favorite                       Champion                   What this means for the Beavers

America East                Binghamton                Stony Brook                 Doesn't matter, this was a one bid league anyway.
Atlantic 10                    Charlotte                    Saint Louis                  Same thing, one bid league anyway.
ACC                              Virginia                     Florida State                Both teams would have made it anyway.
Atlantic Sun                  Florida Gulf Coast       Mercer                          Both FGCU and MU will make it. One less spot.
Big 12                           Texas                         Texas A&M                  Both teams would have made it anyway.
Big East                        Louisville                   St. John's                    That takes another At-Large Bid away.
Big South                      Coastal Carolina         Coastal Carolina      Coastal Carolina preserves another Bubble Team.
Big Ten                          Minnesota                  Minnesota                   One bid league anyway.
CAA                              James Madison        VCU                              James Madison might make it in as well though.
C-USA                          Rice                            Southern Miss            Probably only a one bid league anyway.
Horizon League            Wright State                  UW-Milwaukee            Was a one bid league anyway.
MAAC                           Canisius                    Rider                             Doesn't matter, one bid league anyway.
MAC                             Central Michigan        Kent State                     Same thing, one bid league anyway.
MEAC                           Bethune-Cookman     Bethune-Cookman       One bid league anyway.
MVC                             Wichita State             Illinois State                Probably a one bid league, but WSU might get in.
MWC                            TCU                           TCU                              Probably a three bid league anyway.
NEC                             Sacred Heart              Central Conn. St.        Dosn't matter, was a one bid league anyway.
OVC                             Tennessee Tech         Jacksonville State      Same thing, was a one bid league anyway.
Patriot League               Army                          Bucknell                      Doesn't matter, a one bid league anyway.
SEC                              Florida                       LSU                             Doesn't matter, both teams would have gotten in.
SoCon                         The Citadel                 The Citadel                 Doesn't matter, a one bid leage anyway.
Southland                     Texas State                Lamar                          Another Bubble Spot taken away, TSU will get in.
Summit League           South Dakota State       Oral Roberts               Doesn't matter, a one bid league anyway.
Sun Belt                       Florida Atlantic          Florida International  One less spot for the Beavers.
WAC                            Fresno State              Hawaii                          Probably was a one bid league anyway.

After the Conference Tournaments, it looks like there are 34 Spots taken up. Add the 6 Automatic Bids from Leagues without Tourneys, and that leaves 20 Spots. The question is this: Is Oregon State one of the next best 20 Teams? Let's go into this a little deeper.

First of all, there are four big conferences in College Baseball. The SEC, ACC, Big 12, and Pac-10. Below are my predictions for the bids per conference. (Not including the Conference Tournament Winner)

SEC

Florida
Auburn
South Carolina
Arkansas
Vanderbilt
Mississippi

14 Spots Left

ACC

Virginia
Clemson
Georgia Tech
NC State

10 Spots Left

Big 12

Texas
Oklahoma
Kansas State

7 Spots Left

Alright. Now there are 7 Spots left for the Pac-10. That's pretty much the consensus around the nation, that we will get 7 Teams in. So I'm pretty sure I'm doing this whole Bracket thing right.

Pac-10

In For Sure

Arizona State
UCLA
Stanford
Washington State

On The Bubble

Oregon
Oregon State
California
Arizona

So now the question is, who gets in between the four Bubble Teams? First, let's take a look at the records:

Oregon, 38-22
Oregon State, 31-22
California, 29-23
Arizona, 33-22

Obviously, the team that falls short there is the Golden Bears. They have failed to reach the 30 Win Plateau, and they also have more losses then anyone else. Now let's take a look at the RPI's:

Oregon, 31
Oregon State, 23
California, 36
Arizona, 25

Once again, the team that falls short are the Golden Bears with an RPI of 36. I think it's safe to say that California will be the team left out, and that Oregon State will be in the Field of 64 once again!

Hopefully my formula is correct. I'll see everyone in the morning.

Go Beavers!

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or the Building the Dam staff. FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable Oregon State fans.

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