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CFB Compu-Picks Ratings, Week Ten

... 5) The following teams are ranked materially higher by the model than the BCS: Alabama, Virginia Tech, Arkansas, Arizona, Oregon St, USC, Florida St. Putting aside Virginia Tech for now (as noted in previous weeks' notes, this difference is partially due to not counting AA games... though 20th is probably too low for how well they're playing right now), let's look at the other teams. One interesting thing to think about when looking at Alabama is how much it's really fair to dock them for a very close loss on the road to a very good LSU team. Certainly they should go down a bit... but should they really go down much? That's a quality loss, and compu-picks simply didn't dock them much for it (they were also helped by some opponent results boosting their schedule strength, which is why their rating basically hovered compared to last week). Arkansas just came up with one of the most impressive wins anyone has logged all season long (which you can see on the list of top five wins above), going on the road to South Carolina and simply dominating. It was a great win by virtually any standard. Arizona doesn't have any single really exceptional performance, but have a number of very solid ones, such as the 41-2 blowout at Toledo, the 34-27 win against Iowa, and the 29-21 win @ UCLA (who's rated better than you'd think; 4-5 isn't great, but it's been against a truly brutal slate, and that Texas win still looks good, though not as good as it did at the time). Oregon St's rating is mainly a function of their insane schedule. They've played two top five teams, both on the road. They've played another top 25 team on the road (and won). And the easiest game they've had so far was Louisville at home, and the Cardinals are basically mediocre rather than lousy. That's eight slightly tough to really tough games, and to make it more fun, five of them have been on the road. The Beavers' schedule rating will drop a bit in the next two weeks, with home games against Wazzu and USC... but then it's right back on the horse with at Stanford and then home against Oregon. This team is WAY better than you'd think just looking at 4-4. USC is ineligible to be rated by the BCS, so I'll pass on commenting on them for now. One obvious thing about Florida St is that their ass-kicking of Miami on the road was really impressive (Miami isn't far off the compu-picks' top 25, and that was a ridiculous ass-kicking), and seems to have been lost in the shuffle a bit. I can't think of anything especially interesting otherwise to say about them.

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