Today's Poll - What's Your LOB Measuring Stick?
A comment that calripken08 posted the other day got me thinking a lot about runners left on base, and I decided to make it the topic of today's poll. I'm still quite befuddled by the subject (really, are runners left on base good or bad??), so hopefully you guys can help me out and drop some knowledge.
Just for a point of reference, here is an excerpt from calripken08's comment:
I’m still concerned about the RISP/LOB issues, however the Beavs seem to be balancing that out with the 2 out hits; listening to the game on the way home from work, the Beavs were able to push 2 across in the bottom of the 4th which proved to be the winning runs. But 8 LOB is still an issue. Maybe they need to be more aggressive on the bases to open up some holes in the field… I don’t know. It’s just a pattern that leaves me a little concerned going forward in pac-10 play.
Like I just mentioned, runners left on base is a tricky topic in that they're both good and bad. You want runners on base, yet you don't want to leave them there.
If we look at the Major Leagues for a moment, where historical statistics are more readily available and better organized, we find teams have had zero runners left on base on numerous occasions throughout the years. I'll go out on a limb and say that most of those came in no hitters and games where a team faced dominant pitching. So is leaving runners on base good? Or bad? I say it's best to have a happy medium.
While we're on the subject, the MLB record for runners left on base in a game was 20, and it was the New York Yankees who accomplished the feat in 1956 against the Boston Red Sox.
MLB teams average anywhere between 5.7 and 8.2 men left on base per game over the course of a season-- there are the good games and bad games, of course, but no team has ever averaged more than nine men left on base per game over the course of a season. That's a pretty tight window average, considering that 162 games by 30+ teams in recent history go into the picture.
Now, I realize that there are some slight differences in style of play between the big leagues and the college ranks, but it's hard to find historical "LOB" statistics. Hopefully those MLB statistics reasonably translate into the college game.
The Beavers are averaging just over nine runners left on base per game this season.
I was sad to discover that the Pac-10 stat nerds don't keep tabs of runners left on base in the team-conference stats, so I had to do some digging and conduct some difficult computations to yield the following table. For kicks and giggles, I threw in hits per game as well. Here's how it all ranks within in the Pac-10 conference.
| Team | LOB avg | Hits/gm |
| OSU | 9.1 | 9.9 |
| UCLA | 8.4 | 9.3 |
| UW | 8.0 | 9.5 |
| ASU | 7.8 | 9.8 |
| USC | 7.8 | 9.1 |
| WSU | 7.8 | 9.6 |
| Stan | 7.7 | 8.6 |
| Cal | 7.5 | 10.4 |
| UO | 6.5 | 8.7 |
As you can see, the Beavers leave the most men stranded on base in the conference. But they're second in the league in hits.
In the end, I think I'll agree with calripken08. If we can get clutch two out hits to score runners, I'm perfectly happy with leaving a few extra guys on base.
Feel free to vote in the poll, but I'm more interested in your comments since this is a hard topic to whittle down to three poll choices. And if someone has any ideas on how I can further examine the topic by perhaps looking at some different perspective, I'd be open to that as well.
--Jake (jake.buildingthedam@gmail.com)
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one thing for me that the stats don't capture
And I think this actually gets at:
In the end, I think I’ll agree with calripken08. If we can get clutch two out hits to score runners, I’m perfectly happy with leaving a few extra guys on base.
Is the timing of the LOB. Are you leaving two on second and third when up 10 to 5 in the 8th or down 4 to 5 in the 8th? For me the former isn’t, of course, as important as the latter. But then there are considerations of are you in a culture of not getting those clutch hits and it can then escalate over time like I think it did last year. Right now I think the team is doing a pretty darn good job at the timely hits and the team top to bottom is hitting a lot better this year, and I really like how someone is off for a few games and others step up. And heck the team did pretty good with one of our best hitters basically out of the line-up (Santos) for the BYU games. As someone else pointed out we are winning the grind it out games that we lost last year.
But I will say improvement is always a good thing!
-RVM
No doubt it's the 2nd one
Besides for padding stats what’s the point of having hits if you can’t score runs?
Maybe I'm just off here
But wouldn’t more hits statistically equate to more runs? I mean maybe I’m not quite understanding something here but if you getting a bunch of hits the odds increase that you will hitting in more runners because you have more runners. So even if you leave more on every game you are also hitting more in?
I don’t know maybe I’m missing something here.
I guess the Tennessee games illustrate maybe what I’m missing and both games had double digits of LOB and double digits in hits. I guess my point is I just want to see a lot of hits for that increases the odds of getting the runs. I don’t want to see conservative numbers here, I actually think more aggressive base running would help us out.
-RVM
Number of hits vs. their timing
It’s good to see this type of discussion here, however I also enjoy the “fun” side, especially when the “pond chickens” get the brunt of it!
But I digress, since I was the one who brought the issue up I might as well add a few details to my basic thoughts… In the movie Bull Durham the goals of baseball were never more succinctly stated, “this is a very simple game. You catch the ball, you throw the ball and you hit the ball”. The reasons that the Beavs went to Omaha 3 consecutive years was pitching and defense, yet there was a understated part to the success of those teams, timely hits. I can remember several times when the Beavers played small ball and put pressure on the defense and somehow, when hits came, they found holes in the field. This team seems to have all the components in place to make it back to Omaha (we can only hope!) However look at the losses, all have been close, I think the worst was a 6 – 3 loss @ ASU early in the season. So here’s my point, remember the 1 – 0 win against Michigan a couple of years ago in the super regional? As you get deeper in the tournament the ability to get the timely hits become so much more critical. So while I feel more hits would be great for entertainment reasons, by far the most important aspect is their timing which explains my concerns regarding the stranded RISP.
Like a couple of folks have mentioned the subject of LOB/RISP doesn’t easily condense into bullets or single line answers however it does emphasize how challenging the game of baseball is and how much I appreciate the way Pat Casey, Pat Bailey, Marty Lees, and Nate Yeskie coach these guys. Because at the end of the day each one of them is a professor/teacher and the players are students trying their best out there and that’s all we can ask for.
I hope they clock SC this weekend!
Go Beavs!!
So far
So here’s my point, remember the 1 – 0 win against Michigan a couple of years ago in the super regional? As you get deeper in the tournament the ability to get the timely hits become so much more critical.
I think the team this year falls into this timely hits category and I totally agree with what you are saying here. I think this USC series it will be very important to cut down on the LOB/RISP. But in general I also do think they are getting a lot of hits and this is stacking the LOB a bit against them statistically. I guess the short of it is that I’m not really that concerned yet, like I was last year when they weren’t doing any of it. We also have to remember they went through some lean times getting hits in 2007 too when they weren’t scoring much of anything and it almost cost them (the ASU series at home is one that comes immediately to mind, and overall during this time the Pac-10 series it wasn’t a good scene on offense), this year’s team (to date) is much more consistent (IMO).
-RVM
Don't know if anyone is still reading this post
But I looked at the numbers above again, and thinking what would be nice for the Beavs would be something like this (yes, about what ASU is doing right now):
LOB avg = between 7.0 to 8.0
Hits/gm = 9.5 to 10.0
If they could get to those numbers I think they will be very hard to beat.
-RVM

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