BtD Super Spring Pac-10 Preview, Part 2: UO, SU, UCLA
by The VD Special on Feb 23, 2009 7:30 AM PST
in Oregon State Football
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PrintThe Super Spring Pac-10 preview rolls on... If you missed the first installment, find it here.
Oregon Ducks
What We Know:
They return the two components to an absolutely deadly offense from last year (Masoli, Blount). They are going to put up points in a flurry, just like they did at the end of this year. We also know that they have one of the greatest offensive minds in the country, but that it could be very well be negated by one of the worst defensive minds. How do you beat Oregon? Stop their offense once, because you will probably score every time.
Keep Your Eye On:
The defense. Yes, they have some playmakers coming in on D. But, as mentioned above, it will probably be negated by Nick Aliotti. If they can somehow manage to pull together and play well on D, this could be a very, very good team. If not, it could be a long year for our brethren from down south.
Key Dates:
Oregon has a very favorable schedule, with key games against USC, Cal and Oregon State all at home, and all with a few weeks of the rest of the conference in between them. Other than those three:
Sept 5th, @Boise State-- Oregon needs to avenge the loss from last year if it wants any chance of nabbing an at-large BCS
bid. If Oregon can win in Boise, and against Cal, look for them to be undefeated going into Halloween's game against USC. It would be a top 5 and national matchup. God, I hate Oregon.
Impact Freshman:
Cliff Harris seems to be the most talented freshman coming in, but with all the losses at wide receiver, Dionte Jackson is going to be the one to watch. He's fast and has skills. My guess is a lot of quick screen passes in the flat and letting him juke his way for yardage.
Prediction:
Everyone is jumping back on the Oregon bandwagon (seems to happen whenever they find a competent QB) and some think a NCGame may be coming, but too many questions linger on defense for me to think they can go undefeated. Still, I don't think anyone would be disappointed with an 11-1 season, and a definite BCS bid. Worst case scenario: 8-4, with losses to Boise State, Cal, USC, and throw in a loss to Stanford/UCLA/Oregon State.
UCLA and Stanford after the break.
Stanford Cardinal
What We Know:
They return Toby Gerhart, who is playing baseball all spring (where have I heard this before...) and Tavita Pritchard returns as the QB for one of the worst passing teams in the conference last year. We also know that Harbaugh is one hell of a coach and has put together some solid recruiting classes his last two years. How this translates to this year is yet to be seen.
Keep Your Eye On:
Quarterback competition. If Pritchard doesn't step it up this Spring, look for talented RS Freshman Andrew Luck to have a say in matters. There are some in the Stanford camp who want Luck to be #1 right now, but Harbaugh is smarter then to rip away the starting job and hand it to an untested kid. My guess is Pritchard is on a very short, very tight leash.
Key Dates:
Sept 12th, @Wake Forest-- this is going to be a chance for Stanford to show all the east coasters that they have arrived. A good showing from the Cardinal, and they could burst into the top 25 by their Nov 7th game against Oregon.
Oct 24th, Arizona State-- The Cardinal may need this game to get to their 6th win, with games against Oregon, USC, Cal, and Notre Dame to follow.
Impact Freshman:
Another solid recruiting class that could see as many as 5-6 freshman getting significant playing time this year, but I would expect to see running back Tyler Gaffney get a lot of touches, especially if Gerhart bolts for the MLB. A nice blend of size (6'1", 215) and speed (4.44 40), he will definitely see significant playing time.
Prediction:
A reasonable schedule to start the year, don't be surprised to see them as good as 7-1 going into their game with Oregon. However, the winning may stop there. 8-4 isn't entirely out of the question, and would certainly be a step up for a team that is only a couple years removed from a 1 win season. 7-5, 6-6 is most likely.
UCLA Bruins
What We Know:
They have a solid coaching staff, and that's about it. We also know they have had spotty QB play and are going to have a heavy reliance on freshmen and sophomores this year.
Keep Your Eye On:
Another QB competition to watch this Spring, and maybe more so than anyone else. Forcier, Price, and Brehaut all will want to take down incumbent Kevin Craft. But will it matter if they don't have an offensive line worthy to play in the Pac10? That is the real competition: if the current OLineman aren't playing well, look for talented and highly touted guys like Stanley Hasiak and Xavier Su'a Filo to step up and try their hand.
Key Dates:
Oct 31st @Oregon State-- This game may be the difference for the Bruins between a bowl game or not. A win in Corvallis at the end of October is not going to be easy, but if they can get it, then they may have exceeded expectations for the year.
Impact Freshman:
Randall Carroll is going to be the playmaker that UCLA has lacked the last few years, it's just a matter of when it happens. I would expect to see him early and often for the Bruins.
Prediction:
Slick Rick is a good coach an
d 8-4 isn't completely out of the question. Like Stanford, look for them to be the 6-6, 7-5 range.
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Especially after the way it played out last year
I don’t think Oregon is going to much better next year than they were at the end of last year, and Stanford will be much improved.
I support Takimoto in his effort to support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by The VD Special on Feb 23, 2009 11:49 AM PST up reply actions
and at Stanford too (correct?)
And if Stanford is playing well it could be a good crowd for once.
-RVM
I think that's a very good point...
Offensively, they won’t get much better than where they were at least season. I actually think they’ll get back to that level really quickly. Yes, they lose the O-line, but just as OSU fans liked to talk about last year with the defense, 4 of the linemen already have starting experience. On top of this, it should be Oregon’s most talented 2 deep line ever. Though more inexperienced, with the top assistant coach in the nation being Oregon O-line coach, I’m just not worried. Also, with recruiting seemingly shoring up the WR depth issue, as long as Blount is playing, things should be good.
Defensively…I can actually see them getting better, though would have felt much better without the loss of Byrd. On the D-line, we have bodies. Though we only have one player returning, there should be decent talent, and there will be many players that can play. In my opinion, there are so few great D-linemen (especially tackles), having many good ones will be more than adequate. For the linebacking corp, it will be the deepest and most talented in a long, long time. But the real key is at free safety. TJ Ward was terrible at free safety next year, and will most likely be taking over as rover/strong safety. If we get adequate free safety play, the secondary should actually improve in pass coverage. I’m not saying the defense will get better, but it’s a definite possibility.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
I know, I know
You all have been over this a bunch on the AtQ, but I haven’t had time to go through all of it, but what are your thoughts about the coaching deal?
I mean it looks like UO has a choice schedule to make a huge run at things next year, should MB step aside to let CK have a shot at it, or should Coach B. stick around to see if he can really go out with a bang? I’ve heard a bit more in favor of the former situation would be better (let Chip have it and ring in the new era with a really good year).
-RVM
MB should stick around. He’s always given a lot of reign to his coordinators anyway, and been a motivator/manager. I’d like him to stick around with those things, let Chip handle the offense exclusively for another year, and then go from there.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
From everything I've heard
MB is more of a “face” for the program, rather then a coach. And I’ve also heard that there are some feelings that MB might stick around this year, but give Chip Kelly some more reigns in running the actual program, and MB just being there for support. Any truth to this that you guys have heard?
I support Takimoto in his effort to support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by The VD Special on Feb 23, 2009 12:33 PM PST up reply actions
That's kinda what I'm hearing...
Also, Bellotti was also the frontman for the two recent assistant coaching hires, which initially people thought was related to Kelly taking over. As you said, he’s very much a face of the program, a manager that gives his coaches a lot of responsibility, which can be both good and bad.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
I'm really interested to see what happens to the UO defense
I think that, even with the loss of Byrd and Chung, they are going to be more talented and deeper on D this year. However, I’m still unsure about Aliotti. You guys have had talented defenses before, and NA has screwed that up.
I support Takimoto in his effort to support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by The VD Special on Feb 23, 2009 12:34 PM PST up reply actions
I’m not the Aliotti hater that other UO fans are. I think he’s average, but not terrible. I guess the big question is, how does a football team (with similar talent) go from having great 3rd down and red zone stats in 2007 go to terrible in 2008? Well, the main reason was incredibly poor free safety play. It put a much larger load on the cornerbacks, as TJ Ward couldn’t guard anything that got deep (especially in the USC game, which I covered here).
One of the reasons that USC was so good at defense last year was the Taylor Mays could cover the entire deep field by himself. This took the pressure off the corners, and allowed the other safety to play up a lot of the time. Oregon had the opposite.
If Oregon has a decent free safety, I really don’t see Nick Aliotti screwing up, and last year, adjustments were made that made the best of a bad situation.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
While Chung was probably a better player than Byrd, I think losing Byrd will have more of an impact.
TJ Ward is completely capable of playing the Rover/SS position. We need to get someone to step up as Free Safety though, as jtlight said.
Also, duck linebackers should really be one of the strongest Oregon has had in a VERY long time.
It's spelled "S-H-U-G-S-A-R-E-F-O-R-T-H-U-G-S""
Yep. Last year's game was at Autzen
With Oregon winning on a TD with 6 seconds left.
I support Takimoto in his effort to support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by The VD Special on Feb 23, 2009 12:03 PM PST reply actions
I am a little confused
I know that Stanford and UCLA are going to be improved from last year but I don’t see them beating Oregon next year
by Harringtoncuz3 on Feb 23, 2009 12:53 PM PST reply actions
I'm not sure anyone said that it was a done deal, just a possible result
As we have been talking that the Stanford versus Oregon game could be a good one with the way the seasons could pan out. Did anyone think that Stanford would/should take Oregon to the edge (and actually really should have won this last year)?
I don’t think he said that UCLA would beat UO, but there could be the chance they might win. It’s college football and the Pac-10 and lots of things can happen. UO plays both on the road next year and played both very tight this last year so I think his prediction was there was a chance UO could lose to them (‘Worst case scenario"). He doesn’t like UA much so I’ll fill that one in too as a possible difficult win on the road.
Notice also he went the other direction and stated it could well go to 11-1 next year for the Ducks.
Maybe I’m misreading it, so he can clarify more if needed.
-RVM
That is spot on
And I really honestly don’t see UA doing well this year… This was the best team they’ve had in the 5 years that Stoops has been at the healm, and they went 8-5..
I support Takimoto in his effort to support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by The VD Special on Feb 23, 2009 2:33 PM PST up reply actions
Though anything's possible...
It should be noted that the Stanford game last year was the last of Masoli’s “bad days”, and he ended up leading the team down the field in those final 2 minutes for a career changing drive. Just saying, there’s no possible way to know the score of the Stanford game last year if we had the late-year Masoli show up.
Addicted To Quack [dot] com; "In other news, Ropert was mauled by a velociraptor yesterday and sustained a life-threatening ACL injury and a pulled hamstring."
true
But at this early stage can we really say Stanford will be a push over? Can we say Masoli’s “bad days” are over and done with forever?
Just as can we say Stanford will be any good at that late stage in the season? Will they be able to live up to the expectations I believe they will be surrounded with going into next season?
Personally I find the Stanford versus Oregon game very interesting to think about at this stage is because I think Stanford could either be a team that can stay with a Duck team or they could be a team that will get crushed. Just as I think the Oregon team could well have some question marks (good and bad for Duck fans) that a game like this could highlight such as in where they are at and where they are going.
Anyway, IMO I think it is a bit premature for Duck fans to start checking off Ws on their schedule next year (as it would be for Beaver fans and heck even Trojan fans) with some of the pretty big questions surrounding most of the Pac-10 as I think cloudydays summed up well below. That’s really what my response was detailing out above. And that the initial posting breaking down the Ducks was pretty realistic I thought and did not state with 100% certainty that UO was losing to Stanford and UCLA next season.
-RVM
The PAC-10 is going to be loaded next year.
There are the upper echelon teams that will be competing (USC, UO, CAL OSU) for the title. Then you got a bunch of teams you have no idea about (Stanford, UCLA, UDub, ASU, UA) and then you got Washington State.
On a side note, boy does it feel good to say, with confidence, that both UO and OSU will be competing for the Pac-10 title.
Not only will the PAC be tough, but Tebow, Bradford, and McCoy all came back to school. Next year is going to be a great year for College Football.
Non-conference play
I hope that USC, UO, Cal and OSU all sweep their non-conference games. This will give the Pac-10 a good shot at two team in the BCS at the end of the season regardless of who wins the conference title.
Yes BUT for that to happen two teams are going to have to finished with less than 2 losses
Assuming USC goes undefeated, then Cal, UO, or OSU is going to have to beat the other 2… Not exactly easy to do
I support Takimoto in his effort to support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.
by The VD Special on Feb 23, 2009 9:37 PM PST up reply actions
OSU @ USC
Maybe this will be the year that the Beavers finally win a game @ USC. With a new QB at USC, perhaps the Beavers will be able to beat the Trojans. My guess is that USC will lose at least one game next year.
I just hope that it will be a conference game or two they lose. Having USC go to Ohio State and Notre Dame and winning would greatly enhance everyone’s strength of schedule stats. Having the Ducks beat Boise State and Utah would also help.
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