The Sun Bowl can use the no-repeat clause if they want. I’m almost 100% sure they will, just making sure everyone knows that’s a possibility. My projections below:

Rose Bowl-Oregon
Holiday Bowl-Arizona
Sun Bowl-Stanford
Emerald Bowl-Oregon State
Las Vegas Bowl-California
Poinsettia Bowl-USC
Humanitarian Bowl-UCLA

I see the Sun Bowl invoking it’s no-repeat clause and taking the Cardinal.

Even though Cal is in the Bay Area, I don’t think the Emerald wants to take them two years in a row. I’m guessing they also are smart enough to know that the Beavers are way better than USC. So Oregon State goes to San Francisco.

The Vegas Bowl takes California, Poinsettia is left with USC, and the Humanitarian Bowl picks up UCLA.

Beavers are #16.

It is either the Sun Bowl or the Las Vegas Bowl for the Beavers. And since the Sun will most definitely take Stnaford, it looks like we’re headed to Vegas.

For the Emerald and Poinsettia Bowls, the Emerald will pick between California and USC. The one who does not make the Emerlad will go to the Poinsettia. That decision will be made some time around 1:30 PM Pacific Time.

Via Greg Wrubell, BYU football and basketball play-by-play man…

So, the first Pac-10 domino has fallen, meaning Stanford will almost certainly be the Sun Bowl selection (#3 Pac-10)—leaving the Emerald and Las Vegas Bowls to set their matchups at the 4/5 spots, with Oregon State, USC and Cal all in the mix.

Only Oregon State is ranked in the Coaches’/AP polls, with the Beavers 20th and 16th, respectively. BYU is up a spot in the AP to 15th and down a spot in the Coaches, to 14th.

If the Las Vegas Bowl is able to pick Oregon State, and then opts for BYU, that bowl would be one of the few lower-tier bowls featuring a matchup of Top 20 teams. More notably, the Las Vegas Bowl could end up with a higher-ranked Pac-10 team than both Holiday and Sun Bowls, which would be quite the coup.

Not knowing the particular logistics of the Emerald Bowl/Las Vegas Bowl bargaining and selection negotiations between the #4 and #5 picks, it will be interesting to see how the two bowls state their respective priorities. To me, the biggest question is, who wants USC more: the Emerald Bowl or Las Vegas Bowl? While a matchup of two Top 20 teams would be intriguing, does Las Vegas instead want to tap into the nearby L.A. fan base?

Another question: Is it possible the Emerald could opt for the regional ticket sales potential of Cal, and leave USC to the Poinsettia Bowl?

Stanford will play Oklahoma. This assures us of going to Vegas.

California will play in the Poinsettia Bowl.

USC will play in the Emerald Bowl.

With Cal presumably headed to the Poinsettia, USC must want Vegas over the Emerald.

USC is only 4 hours from Las Vegas (San Francisco is 6), the payout is $150,000 more ($1 mil to $850k) and the Trojans would face a ranked BYU or Utah rather than an unranked Boston College (who lost to Notre Dame…ouch).

I’m thinking the Beavers are headed to San Francisco but BYU (and especially Bronco Mendenhall) would be excited for Oregon State…:(

More from Greg Wrubell…

ESPN’s Joe Schad reports it will be USC and Boston College in the Emerald Bowl. This would clear the way for the Las Vegas Bowl to select Oregon State.

Since Oregon State and Utah met in 2007 and 2008, and since BYU and Oregon State last met in 1986, and since Bronco Mendenhall played and coached for OSU… the Cougars and Beavers in Las Vegas has to happen…right?