Turnovers: The Deciding Factor in Thursday's Game?

by Jake Bertalotto on Nov 30, 2009 11:30 AM PST in Oregon State Football Comment 3 comments

It's cliché-- but very true.

Football is a sport that includes so many intangible aspects and moving parts, but it oftentimes boils down to the fundamentals. Let's face it, turnovers are a big factor in determining what team will win on any given Saturday. Or Thursday, for that matter.

A major key for Oregon State in Thursday's Civil War, especially due to the fact that they will be playing in Autzen Stadium, will be turnovers.

Preventing them, and creating them.

After all, the Beavers committed four turnovers in last year's game, and the Ducks didn't have any.

When you look at the turnover statistics side by side for these two teams, you'll see nearly identical ratios. The Ducks force more turnovers, but commit more as a result. Oregon State is +4 in turnover margin on the year, and Oregon is +5.

When you look at these numbers i n the scope of the Pac-10 conference, you'll see that the Beavers are the best in the Pac-10 in not committing turnovers. But they're the worst when it comes to creating turnovers.

A big reason for the low turnover numbers is because of the two players who handle the ball most in the offense: Sean Canfield and Jacquizz Rodgers. Canfield is completing over 70 percent of his passes, and has a 19-6 touchdown to interception ratio. Rodgers, on the other hand, has been one of the best backs Oregon State has ever seen when it comes to hanging onto the football.

If the way this season has gone is any indication, the Beavers are in good shape in this department. The Beavers have lost just eight turnovers all season, a mark that ranks second in the nation. Only Cincinnati, who the Beavers played earlier in the year, has committed less (7).

In the last 73 games, Oregon State is 30-4 when committing less turnovers than their opponent, 9-18 when committing more, and 8-4 when even.

It is the norm in rivalry games to assume the final result will be narrow, due the the emotion, passion, and energy surrounding the game. In a game that many predict will be decided by a touchdown or less, keeping control of the football will be key.

Your thoughts?

--Jake | (jake.buildingthedam@gmail.com) | Twitter

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Comments

I really think it comes down to pressuring Masoli.

If we’re going to create turnovers, it is going to require our LB corps to get some pressure to stop Masoli abusing the read-option. If we can flush him out of the pocket, but force him to throw or take short yardage runs then we will have a chance to get some picks. In my mind Kristick has to hit Masoli early and often, so if he has to throw he doesn’t have time to wait for Dickson to get out in space (or their receivers getting gaps between the corner and the safety).

by insanity on Nov 30, 2009 1:02 PM PST reply actions

Turnovers and penalties...

…will kill ya.

After looking at those stats, I assume that Chip Kelly has banned soap and buttered microwave popcorn from the locker room in order to achieve a little change of pace for the Civil War.

by Joe A. on Nov 30, 2009 3:22 PM PST reply actions

I haven't really thought about turnover margin...

and here is why: it really hasn’t made a difference. We lost three times and came away with wins against quality opponents. Our scoring offense is so consistent that it’s scary. We’re good for 40 points, so turnovers rarely make the difference. The turnover margin in our losses: BSU +1, Stanford 0, and in our near loss against Arizona +1. The key is slowing down our rushing attack.

Our front seven is fast and we blitz very well. I am curious about how well Canfield is protected. Luck, Foles, & Moore all had time. Elliot from Purdue was elusive. Riley, immobile, was horrific against us. Barkley was protected in the first half and they stayed close. Then our defense got to him in the second half. We absolutely teed off on the lower tier teams of the Pac-10. Sacks and false starts will be drive killers. Canfield must have protection and the olline has to be able to pick up blitzes from the linebackers that are fast. We disguise them well by dropping a DE and bringing pressure from the middle, outside linebacker and safeties. The problem is getting you in obvious passing situations to dial up the pressure.

Conversely, is Oregon State’s rush defense going to be able to slow down our rushing attack? This is tricky. You have impressive numbers. However, we are anything but a traditional rush offense. We can make a premier rush defense look silly. I doubt that you’ll hold us under 200 yards rushing (the only two times happened on the road) but can you get in the backfield to force us to punt here and there?

It comes down to stops and turnovers are one of a few ways to accomplish the task. I like our defensive seven against a young, undersized oline in a hostile environment.

by BisonDucks on Nov 30, 2009 6:22 PM PST reply actions